The day after the latest 9th Congressional District election, the campaigns and political scientists are looking at what clues the special election and runoff can offer as Georgia’s July 20 primary draws closer.
Unfortunately, low voter interest in the special election and much higher expected turnout in July make it tough to make predictions.
“With this one we just don’t know,” said Merle Black, professor of politics and government at Emory University. “That’s why it so unusual.”
Former state representative Tom Graves won Tuesday’s runoff, 56.5 percent to 43.5 percent, over Lee Hawkins, a former state senator from Gainesville.
Voter turnout and a different set of candidates will change the race’s complexion by July 20, Dr. Black said.
“We don’t know what’s going to happen between now and then,” he explained.
In the primary, Mr. Graves and Dr. Hawkins will face Chickamauga businessman Steve Tarvin, Blairsville cardiologist Chris Cates and state Rep. Bobby Reese. Two other candidates have dropped out, though their names still will be on the ballot.
On Tuesday night only 9 percent of eligible voters cast ballots. Dr. Hawkins said the larger turnout expected on July 20 when more races are on the ticket would favor him.
Dr. Paul Morton, dean of arts and humanities at Covenant College, said that’s part spin but still could be a valid notion.
“He may have a point, just because obviously the electorate will be bigger,” said Dr. Morton, who teaches classes on elections and political topics. “Then the question becomes, where will these people who haven’t voted go — who will they then turn to when they see these names on the ballot?”
Dr. Ken Ellinger, a professor of political science at Dalton State College, sees it differently. He said that because Mr. Graves’ home territory had lower turnout, he could get a boost as more voters show up.
“If anything, (Graves) would get more voters from his home area,” he said.
The eastern side of the district voted most heavily on Tuesday.
Nearly a third of the votes came from Hall County and more than half came from Hall and neighboring Forsyth counties. Hall County, which includes Gainesville and some far northeastern Atlanta suburbs around Lake Lanier, had 200 more votes than Walker, Dade, Catoosa, Whitfield, Murray, Gordon, Fannin and Gilmer counties combined.
FAST FACTS* $6.22: Cost per vote in 9th District counties Tuesday* 14.2 percent: Hall County’s turnout, highest in the district* 4.2 percent: Walker County’s turnout, lowest in the district* 12,229: Number of votes cast in Hall County, highest in the district* 452: Number of votes cast in Dade County, lowest in the district* 14: Counties won by Tom Graves* 1: Counties won by Lee Hawkins
The sheer population numbers favor the two eastern counties, but Dalton Mayor David Pennington said the western counties could have made their voices a little louder.
“We’ve got to outvote them percentage-wise, because they outnumber us,” said Mr. Pennigton, who is spearheading a voting drive in Whitfield County. “Right now we’re undervoting.”
With 332,700 residents, the six northwest Georgia counties make up about 38 percent of the district’s overall population of 874,900. But it has only 34 percent of the district’s registered voters.
By itself, Forsyth County has 20 percent of the population and 23 percent of registered voters.
Mr. Reese, who did not run in the special election, said the candidates will be careful not to ignore the smaller counties, but they will spend most of their time in the larger ones.
“It’s kind of hard not to,” he said. “Logically you go where most of the votes are.”
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Article: Graves wins special election in 9th District