The fact that North Korea has built a new uranium enrichment facility is barely debatable. An eyewitness account confirms the presence of a plant containing highly sophisticated equipment that could be used to produce weapons-grade material. What is uncertain is the real purpose of the facility. As always when the topics of discussion are North Korea and Kim Jong Il, its leader, the answers are difficult to determine. That difficulty makes recent events in North Korea especially worrisome.
Many arms experts, for example, reasonably worry that the new facility is the latest gambit in North Korea’s long effort to become recognized as a global nuclear power. Some diplomats disagree with that assessment, saying that North Korea’s latest claim is more likely not a real threat, but an attempt to force a reopening of talks to modify tough international economic and other sanctions in place against it. Trouble is, both scenarios are credible.
So is another interpretation of events. Others believe revelation of the uranium-enrichment plant is designed, in some way, to ease the transition of power from Kim Jong Il to Kim Jong Un, the former’s youngest son, who was almost unknown until the recent announcement that he would succeed his father. No one can be sure, though, precisely what dynamic drives North Korean policy in this matter or any other.
North Korea claims the new facility will be used for peaceful purposes. Maybe so, but the enrichment plant, experts say, is capable of producing weapons-grade uranium. If true, that would double the danger posed by North Korea, which already has plutonium-based programs to produce material that can be used in nuclear bombs. Dealing with the possible ramifications of the plant will require a well-coordinated international effort.
The best avenue for that approach is resumption of joint aid-for-disarmament talks between the United, States, China, Japan, Russia, South Korea and North Korea. New six-party talks are the quickest and most efficient way to deal with all the issues that affect North Korea’s difficult relationship with the rest of the world. There’s no indication that Kim Jong Il is willing to participate, though every effort – including a push from President Barack Obama – to bring him to the table should be taken.
For the moment, most nations are taking a reasoned approach to the newly disclosed uranium plant. P.J. Crowley, a State Department spokesman, said the facility ” … obviously is an issue of concern” for the United States but “not a crisis.” Enhanced monitoring of events in North Korea and a timely update of U.S. strategic plans and diplomatic policies for the area are in order. That should help minimize the chance of current events rising to the level of a “crisis,” though nothing is guaranteed given the unpredictability of Kim Jong Il.