The floods that struck Pakistan last summer were devastating. It is impossible, of course, to quantify the cost of the natural disaster in terms of personal loss and suffering. It is possible, though, to calculate the amount of damage done to homes, roads, farms and infrastructure by an inundation that ultimately affected about 20 percent of the country. It is immense. The World Bank and Asian Development Bank put the cost at about $9.5 billion. That staggering number signals problems ahead for a vital U.S. ally in the war in Afghanistan and in the battle against terrorism.
Natural disasters on a grand scale are not new to Pakistan. In 2005, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake took an estimated 86,000 lives and caused significant damage. Still, the estimated cost of the recent flooding is twice that of the earthquake. Moreover, Pakistan is still dealing with the aftermath of the quake even as it tries to cope with the disruptions caused by the floods.
Indeed, the floods that started in August still beset the country. More than 20 million people, officials estimate, were displaced by the raging waters. Only a small percentage have been able to return to normal life nearly eight weeks later. Medical issues are especially significant. Nearly a million cases of skin disease, about 183,000 malaria cases and untold cases of gastrointestinal illness and acute respiratory infections have been reported.
The weaknesses of the Pakistani government – inefficiency and corruption most notable among them – were exacerbated by the natural disasters. It has been unable to efficiently manage disaster aid or to deliver large-scale relief to flood victims. Even the army, Pakistan’s strongest and best run agency, has been overwhelmed. Unrest has increased noticeably since the floods. That’s not good for Pakistan. It’s certainly not good for United States policy and interests.
Pakistan’s civilian and military leaders can not pursue policies or practices beneficial to U.S. foreign policy until they deal more adequately with the current domestic crisis. To do so, they need far greater assistance than has heretofore been provided. Despite the scale of suffering prompted by the floods, the world has been slow to respond to aid requests.
Some nations, to be fair, have been generous. The United States has sent the most – more than $450 million and has pledged another $7 billion in long-term assistance. Some nations are reluctant to help because they are at odds with Pakistani leaders or policies. Others are tapped out. A string of global disasters has created a major case of global “donor fatigue.”
That “fatigue” and other problems that directly affect the Pakistani-U.S. relationship must be eased, if not resolved by additional grants and aid. Until they are, the Pakistani government will remain shaky and the United States likely will find it increasingly difficult to convince its erstwhile ally to support mutually beneficial policies. Failure to pursue those interests could further weaken Pakistan’s stability and U.S. standing in the region and around the globe.