A federal report on obesity and diabetes and their likely impact on U.S. health care costs in the future is cause for considerable worry. The analysis by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, released Friday, suggests that as many as one 1 of 3 American adults could have diabetes by 2050. Since people with diabetes have medical costs twice that of those without the disease, the economic shock of such an epidemic, if it should occur, could be catastrophic to a nation already struggling to cope with soaring medical costs.
Currently, the CDC reports, about one in 10 American adults has diabetes and about 23.6 million people of all ages in the country are living with the disease. Another 6 million are unaware they have the disease and about 57 million people are pre-diabetic, which means they are candidates to develop the disease. The country currently spends about $174 billion yearly to treat and manage diabetes. What the ultimate cost would be to treat the disease if the diabetic population triples over the next four decades is hard to predict with precision. Whatever the number, it will be a significant drain on both personal and public finances.
The purpose of the new report is twofold. Clearly, the agency wants to raise awareness about an ominous health care trend. Obesity-fueled diabetes already is a leading cause of blindness, lower limb amputations, heart attacks, strokes and dementia in the United States, according to a CDC official. That toll will rise as the number of people with diabetes increases. The warning is timely.
It is useful because many cases of diabetes are preventable. About 5 to 10 percent of people are born with type 1 diabetes, a condition which makes it impossible for them to produce insulin. Most other cases of diabetes are type 2, in which the body loses the ability to produce adequate insulin to control blood sugar levels. There is, physicians say, a strong and direct relationship between the development of type 2 diabetes and poor diet, obesity and lack of exercise. The CDC report forcefully reminds Americans that those three conditions are reversible.
Changes in the current U.S. lifestyle could significantly slow the predicted increase in diabetes, especially among population groups – blacks, Hispanics, American Indians and Alaska native adults – that are up to twice as likely as white adults to have diabetes. It is easy, of course, to recommend and to promote such changes. It is something altogether different to make that change occur.
Physicians and public health officials have been telling Americans for years to watch their diet and exercise more to maintain a healthy weight and to reduce the chance of developing diabetes and other preventable but debilitating illnesses. Some people have complied, but the rapid increase in the number of Americans who are overweight or obese and the rising incidence of diabetes – especially among the young – indicates that most have not. The physical and fiscal price the nation pays for that failure already is high. It will be far more alarming by 2050 if individuals fail to take steps necessary to promote good health.