Fall starts at 11:09 tonight, but residents of the region can note the change of season only on the calendar. It will be almost impossible to do so otherwise.
Temperatures are likely to be far more summer-like than autumnal for the next few days and perhaps longer, forecasters say. The immediate prospects for beneficial precipitation to reduce the area's growing rainfall deficit are relatively slim, as well. It's safe to say that fall, for the moment at least, seems to be on hold.
The first day of fall is likely to be like so many in the last few months - hot and dry. The forecast is for temperatures around the region to be well above normal with little chance for widespread rains. The National Weather Service says the average high in Chattanooga for this date is in the low 80s. The predicted high is a very unfall-like 10 degrees above that.
That's hardly surprising given recent global weather patterns. The past June, July and August were the warmest or among the warmest in the area since U.S. record-keeping began more than a century ago, according to a Weather Service spokesman.
That mirrors broader trends. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports that this year, so far, has been the hottest on record. That mark is likely to stand. Even if the globe cools off in the next three months, the year still is likely to be the hottest or one of the hottest of all time.
Chances for drastic change in the short term seem minimal.
The current 90-day forecast for the region calls for equal chances of above or below normal temperatures but a 30-40 percent chance of below normal precipitation. Fall weather, it appears, is likely to mirror some of the extremes that have characterized the earlier part of the year.
Given world weather patterns in 2010 - an all-time high temperature in Finland, epochal rains in Pakistan, record heat waves in Russia and elsewhere - the influence of global warming on climate is difficult to dispute, though many continue to do so.
It is true that other factors like an El Nino phenomenon early in the year played a role in heating up the globe, but that means little in the long term. "We would not be where we are [in terms of heat]" without the influence of climate change, says Deke Arndt of the National Climactic Data Center.
There is little, as the old adage goes, that we can do about the weather other than urge elected officials to approve climate legislation that in time will produce positive change. We'll just have to live with the heat and await more seasonal temperatures. Some relief might come soon. A Weather Service forecaster says that a weak front next week could lower temperatures here to the mid-80s. That sounds good, but it would still be a few degrees above average. More comfortable, i.e. cool, fall weather might take a while yet to arrive.