Commentary by Clif Cleaveland
I am convinced by the weight of scientific evidence that global warming is real, that it poses a serious threat to our future and that human activity is one of its driving forces.
I am not a climatologist. I depend upon the studies and reports of scientists worldwide who work daily in the field of climate to inform me. I recommend the following four books that highlight the issue of accelerated climate change and the practical difficulties in finding remedies.
“Fast Forward,” a Brookings Institute report by William Antholis and Strobe Talbott, presents a brief account of global warming along with a review of recent national and international efforts to forge new policy to reduce greenhouse gases.
The authors point to the difficulties in achieving a global consensus. They believe that agreement among the U.S., the European Union, China, and India holds more promise. The four contain almost half of the world’s population and account for almost 70 per cent of greenhouse emissions. If the Big Four could agree to targets and meaningful deadlines in achieving them, the rest of the world could be encouraged or pressured to accept these policies.
James Hansen, one of our nation’s most distinguished climate scientists offers an impassioned, very personal, and well-documented call for climate stability in “Storms of My Grandchildren.” The science is thorough and provides insights into the author’s research. Hansen’s account of battles with national political figures is both sad and frightening. He concludes that the biggest obstacle in addressing global warming comes from the wallets of Washington lobbyists.
“In order for a democracy to function well, the public needs to be honestly informed.”
This narrative is the literary equivalent of Paul Revere’s ride. The author is alerting us to the critical need to reduce greenhouse gases beginning now.
“The Weather of the Future” by Heidi Cullen presents a concise and readily accessible account of the science supporting the theory of global warming. Following this introduction, the author, a research climatologist, uses computer models and a variety of interviews with experts of various backgrounds to assess present risks and future liabilities for six sites: New York City, California’s Central Valley, Australia’s Great Barrier Reef, the Sahel region of Northern Africa, Bangladesh, and the Arctic-both Greenland and the Inuit territories of Canada.
Bangladesh faces a grim future over coming decades with a burgeoning population occupying land at the mercy of floods from melting glaciers and rising seawaters. The Central Valley, which supplies much of California’s drinking water, faces risks from intruding ocean waters and crumbling levees. New York City will depend upon levees and storm gates to survive more intense storms and rising ocean levels. The scenarios are not presented for gloom-and-doom effect but to promote awareness of dangers that need to be addressed now.
Global warming has generated fierce controversy. Some represents sincere doubt among scholars and scientists. Some represents deliberate misinformation. “Merchants of Doubt” by Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway looks at campaigns to discredit science beginning with tobacco-smoking, continuing through acid rain and ozone depletion to global warming.
Science is a process of inquiry, of testing hypotheses, and of debating findings with peers who will carry out their own testing to confirm or refute conclusions based on earlier work. When science uncovers dangers – unpleasant truths – that have economic consequences, opponents will finance powerful lobbying efforts to attempt to sway the votes of legislators to block change.
Throw into the mix political enterprises that oppose governmental regulation in general and, before long, confusion reigns and hopes for reasonable responses to important, scientific discovery diminish. That is the current status of global warming in the United States.
Climate does not respond to political slogans and disinformation.