Many experienced observers say that China and the United States are moving in opposite directions. China, buoyed by its growing wealth and the influence it brings, is on the ascendancy. The United States, saddled with continuing economic uncertainties, with the cost of two wars and with divisive internal politics, is in decline. That might have been an accurate evaluation a few months ago, but it is not now. That is especially and surprisingly so in Asia.
The United States’ increase in influence in the region increasingly dominated by China has little do with changes in U.S. policy, though that has helped. It has far more to do with China’s deteriorating relations with neighbors, particularly Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. China’s heavy-handed actions on a variety of issues have infuriated and, perhaps, frightened regional leaders. The result: Many Southeast Asian nations that not so long ago were cool towards the United States now actively seek its friendship and cooperation. In diplomatic circles, that counts as a significant triumph.
The catalyst for the souring relationships is China’s claim that the entire South China Sea – an area flush with oil, natural gas and fish – belongs to it, and that it will act forcefully if necessary to protect that interest. That understandably angers Vietnam, Taiwan, Malaysia, Brunei and the Philippines. Each has made territorial claims on the sea. It’s an important issue for both strategic and economic issues.
The United States, of course, has vital interests in the area. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has made it clear the United States will protect them. Earlier this year, she told a group of Asian leaders that Chinese claims on two islands in the region contradicted U.S. interests and that she wanted to play a role in resolving issue. China did not take up the offer; it said the United States was interfering in its affairs.
In addition, Japan and China are at odds over maritime and fishing issues. China has protested U.S. involvement in naval exercises with South Korea. It claims that the operations infringe on Chinese military operations. Other disputes between China and other regional governments vary in intensity and importance, but have one thing in common. Each pushes the nation allegedly threatened by China closer to the United States.
President Barack Obama will surely attempt to nurture and expand the United States’ growing influence in the region when he meets with leaders of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations today. The group is expected to issue a statement advocating peaceful resolution rather than the use of force to resolve the South China Sea disputes. That’s likely to anger China and increase the diplomatic distance between it and its neighbors. The United States should work diligently to fill the resultant vacuum.