If you have no idea which of the half-dozen or so Republican presidential candidates is leading in the race for the nomination to face President Barack Obama in November, join the crowd!
The GOP contest has featured one leader after another, and today, only three days before the Iowa caucuses, it is still remarkably unclear who the overall front-runner is to win the Republican nod.
“It’s completely unprecedented to have a field and a cycle that has been this unpredictable, this turbulent late in the process,” Matt Strawn, Iowa Republican Party chairman, told CNN.
Depending on which opinion polls you favor, the leader may be former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. He tops some recent nationwide polls among the GOP candidates, and he holds commanding leads in early-primary states South Carolina and Florida.
Or the front-runner might be former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. He has consistently been at or near the top in polls in Iowa and another early-voting state, New Hampshire.
Both Gingrich and Romney have led at times in head-to-head polls with Obama.
But the plot thickens! Texas Congressman Ron Paul seems to have a real shot in Iowa, judging from recent surveys.
And in just the past few days, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has been moving up in Iowa — and even Texas Gov. Rick Perry may be making a bit of headway.
As if all those signs of uncertainty were not enough, considerable numbers of Iowans were still undecided as the caucuses drew near, meaning the results could be markedly different from what the polls suggest.
Tim Albrecht, a spokesman for Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad, expressed what many people, not only in Iowa but nationwide, are no doubt feeling about the primary contest to pick a challenger for Obama.
“I have never seen this level of undecided voters this late in the process. It’s a crazy year in that regard,” he said.
How long will the indecision last? That’s hard to say. It’s possible that the top GOP contenders will split the early-primary states, leaving no one with clear momentum and a smooth path to the nomination. That could mean a longer-than-usual primary fight, with even the late-primary states becoming important in picking the Republican nominee.
So next Tuesday’s Iowa caucuses, while obviously important, may not clear things up very much. And even the soon-to-come contests in New Hampshire, South Carolina and Florida may not yield a definite preference among Republican voters.
If there is a silver lining to this cloud of uncertainty, it is that the GOP candidates are getting good preparation for what will undoubtedly be a bruising general-election battle with President Obama.