It is anyone’s guess at this point whether Democrat President Barack Obama will win re-election in November. It seems likely that Republicans will retain control of the U.S. House of Representatives. And which party will have control of the Senate after the November elections is a matter of great debate.
At present, Democrats hold 51 seats in the Senate, and Republicans hold 47 seats. There are two independent senators, though both are generally aligned with Democrats, giving Democrats in effect a 53-47 majority in the Senate.
That means that come November, Republicans would need a net gain of at least four seats to wrest control of the Senate away from Democrats.
And Republicans just might manage to do that.
Sen. Ben Nelson of Nebraska recently joined the growing list of Democrat senators who say they will not seek re-election in November.
Nelson has tried to strike a moderate pose in generally conservative Nebraska. But he angered many residents of the state with his votes in favor of ObamaCare socialized medicine and the failed federal “stimulus.” A strong movement to defeat him in the next election was well under way when he announced that he will not seek to remain in office.
That likely means his seat will be relatively easy for a Republican to win in Nebraska.
“This virtually guarantees a Republican victory in 2012,” University of Nebraska at Lincoln political scientist Mike Wagner told The Associated Press. “There’s almost no scenario in which a Democrat can win — especially at this late stage.”
Other liberal Democrats who are retiring from Senate seats in conservative states — making Republican wins probable — include Sen. Jim Webb of Virginia and Kent Conrad of North Dakota. And Democrats in Florida, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and elsewhere are considered vulnerable to a GOP challenge.
Of course, even if Republicans gain a slim majority in the Senate, that is no guarantee that they will be able to reverse a range of harmful policies, including ObamaCare. It takes not a simple majority of 51 but a “super majority” of 60 votes to break a filibuster in the 100-member Senate, so the minority party can often block the majority.
Only in the unlikely event that Republicans do well enough in November to reach the 60-seat mark could they realistically expect to undo much of the unwise legislation passed in recent years — including a period of 2009 and 2010 when Democrats controlled the White House and the House of Representatives, and had a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate.
So while we certainly would not lament the arrival of more conservatives to the Senate, it would be wrong to assume that a few more Republicans in the Senate will automatically bring about great change in the often unconstitutional laws that have been imposed on the American people lately.