Getty Images/iStockphotoThe heated, expensive campaign against three sitting Tennessee Supreme Court justices has only gotten hotter as Election Day approaches. But experts who’ve studied the data and politics in retention elections across the nation expect that if recent history is any indicator, opponents will have a tough time unseating the three.
Conservative groups led by Tennessee Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey have sent mailers, run TV ads, spoken across the state and given voters a video tutorial on the lengthy ballot with the goal of unseating justices Connie Clark, Gary Wade and Sharon Lee, all appointees of former Democratic Gov. Phil Bredesen.
But research going back to the 1960s shows that nationwide, judges in retention elections have a wide margin of success and opponents will have to persuade around 20 to 30 percent more voters to cast ballots against retention.
That’s only happened a handful of times in recent decades, according to research published by professor Larry Aspin of Bradley University in Peoria, Ill.
In the dozen states that have retention elections, support for sitting judges has fluctuated from the high 60 percent range to the mid-70s, according to Aspin’s research.