American Pharoah has a chance today to become horse racing’s first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
What would it mean for the sport? What would it mean for American Pharoah’s legacy? ESPN horse racing analyst Barry Abrams was a guest Friday on “Press Row” on Chattanooga’s ESPN 105.1 FM.
Q: American Pharoah strengthened his role as the favorite when he drew the No. 5 post. How important was that in this eight-horse field?
A: “It doesn’t matter a lot, but you do want to be starting in the middle of the field to where you can see what everybody else is doing. American Pharoah has to break well out of the gate no matter what post he drew. He’s a front-runner, and if he breaks poorly he’s not really going to be able to make up that distance in the early going. That’s what did in Bob Baffert’s previous Triple Crown attempt with War Emblem in 2002, because he broke poorly and never recovered.
“American Pharoah has never seemed to have a problem with that, and the difference will be in the strategy. Will any horse challenge American Pharoah in the early stages? The only one who shows any kind of early speed is Materiality, and if Materiality tries it, I don’t think he can stay with American Pharoah.”
Q: Frosted and Materiality skipped the Preakness and are viewed with the best chances of spoiling things. Who will be the chief challenger?
A: “Kiaran McLaughlen, the trainer of Frosted, told me that he really wants Frosted within four or five lengths of the lead in the early going, so he’s going to be taken a little out of his comfort zone. If Frosted is comfortable being a little farther forward in the early going, then he may have something to say about this.
“Another one to look at is Mubtaahij, the horse from Dubai who never really got comfortable in the states before the Kentucky Derby. He had transit problems, and he had a terrible trip in the race and finished eighth. He is bred for distance. I wouldn’t discount him, because he’s spent the last five weeks here at Belmont Park getting comfortable.”
Q: What would the first Triple Crown in 37 years mean to the sport moving forward?
A: “It depends on how you look at it. I don’t think people are necessarily going to flock to their local track on Sunday or next week because American Pharoah won the Triple Crown, and are you going to stop watching Tennessee on a Saturday in November because American Pharoah is racing the Breeder’s Cup Classic?
“I don’t see that, but if there are people sitting on their couches who are moved and motivated by what they’re seeing and want to get involved in sports but can’t buy the Dallas Cowboys or the Los Angeles Lakers, maybe they can go out and buy a horse like California Chrome, who came close to the Triple Crown last year and cost a total of $10,000.”
Q: If American Pharoah routs the field like he did at the Preakness, what kind of legacy does he leave compared to the all-timers?
A: “That’s an excellent question. Secretariat saved his biggest performance for the most opportune time, and this would be the most opportune time. If he runs a race like he did at the Preakness, that would be extraordinary considering the length of the drought and considering that horses do not race every two or three weeks anymore.
“They race every four, six or eight weeks, so if he pulls this off in this era, it would be extraordinary, no doubt.”
Q: Would American Pharoah losing be a bigger upset than Big Brown’s debacle in 2008?
A: “I never liked Big Brown. I was here for the Belmont that year. It was 93 degrees, and I never thought he had a chance to win that race. The one who surprised me was Smarty Jones (2004), because I thought he had a really good chance to win. He got pushed too hard too early, but I never liked Big Brown.”
Q: So who wins, and is it close?
A: “I think American Pharoah wins this race. I just don’t think he’s going to be pressured too hard up front. As horse racing people love to tell you, it’s not how fast you’re going but how you’re going fast. What we don’t know, and no jockey will tell you, is whether they plan on ganging up on him.
“If American Pharoah can get comfortable early, he’s going to walk away with this thing.”
Contact David Paschall at dpaschall@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6524.