TENNESSEE (3-3, 1-2 SEC) AT NO. 8 ALABAMA (6-1, 3-1)
3:30 p.m. * Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, Ala. * CBS/106.5 FM
Tennessee defensive backs todd Kelly, Jr., right, and Justin Martin, left, break up a pass to Georgia split end Malcolm Mitchell during their SEC football game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015, in Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee won 38-31.THE MATCHUP
It sounds counterintuitive, but Tennessee’s secondary needs to have its best game of the season in Tuscaloosa. No, there’s no more Amari Cooper to worry about – the Crimson Tide receiver caught 21 passes for 461 yards and five touchdowns in three games against the Vols – but one of Tennessee’s most disappointing position groups must be better on Saturday.
The Vols have allowed the most plays of 30-plus yards (17, three more than second-most) and 40-plus yards (11, a whopping six more) in the SEC this season. Many of the Vols’ troubles in giving up big plays have been due to missed tackles at the second level or getting beat on deep balls.
The Vols have been more effective with Todd Kelly Jr. in at safety, and Justin Martin continues to come along at cornerback. Tennessee’s focus against Alabama will be containing Derrick Henry, the SEC’s second-leading rusher.
While that burden will fall on the front seven, the Vols will walk a safety up in run support. Tennessee must be wary of the play-action deep ball, too, and offensive coordinator Lane Kiffin surely will dial up a few of those.
Alabama defensive linemen D.J. Pettway (57) and Jarran Reed (90) helped limit Louisiana-Monroe to 9 rushing yards this past Saturday.ONE TO WATCH
Tennessee is facing what almost certainly is the SEC’s best defensive front, and the Vols may have to do so shorthanded on the offensive line.
Starting guard Jashon Robertson (ankle) has been very limited the past two weeks and is questionable at best to play. Right tackle Brett Kendrick (elbow) is another question mark, though he’s been in practice since sitting out the Georgia game.
With some players missing, does Tennessee trust Jack Jones and Chance Hall enough to play the two freshmen on the road against one of the league’s top defenses? Tennessee’s coaches said during the week they would nail down the starting five and rotation by Thursday or Friday.
The Vols averaged 198 yards rushing in their three previous conference games, and quarterback Josh Dobbs and running back Jalen Hurd have been Tennessee’s most reliable playmakers.
Though Alabama leads the SEC in run defense (70.9 ypg), Tennessee will need to be patient with its ground game. Any success running the ball could allow the Vols to open up the passing game and avoid third-and-long.
IN THE END
A win allows Alabama to head into its open date ahead of a mega-showdown at home against LSU on Nov. 7 on a five-game winning streak, while a Texas A&M win at Ole Miss gives the Tide control of their destiny in the division, the SEC and the playoff picture.
Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs (11) beats a tackle by Georgia linebacker Jake Ganus during their SEC conference football game at Neyland Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 10, 2015, in Knoxville, Tenn.What SEC East hopes Tennessee still does have are done with a loss, but the Vols are two-touchdown underdogs and practically nobody outside of the program expects Tennessee to win, so the Vols should play and coach with nothing to lose.
The talent gap between the two sides of the rivalry formerly known as the “Third Saturday in October” – it’s on the month’s fourth Saturday for a fourth year in a row – has narrowed, but Alabama still looks insurmountable. To pull off the upset, Tennessee probably needs to make a big play on special teams, finish plus-two in turnover margin and get a big game running and throwing from Dobbs.
PREDICTION: ALABAMA 27, TENNESSEE 17
Contact Patrick Brown at pbrown@timesfreepress.com.