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Computer models failing to accurately predict path of flames

Firefighter Thomas Fitzpatrick walks past the remains of a house destroyed in a wildfire several days earlier, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2015, in Middletown, Calif. The fire that sped through Middletown and other parts of rural Lake County, less than 100 miles north of San Francisco, has continued to burn since Saturday despite a massive firefighting effort. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)
Firefighter Thomas Fitzpatrick walks past the remains of a house destroyed in a wildfire several days earlier, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2015, in Middletown, Calif. The fire that sped through Middletown and other parts of rural Lake County, less than 100 miles north of San Francisco, has continued to burn since Saturday despite a massive firefighting effort. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson) Firefighter Thomas Fitzpatrick walks past the remains of a house destroyed in a wildfire several days earlier, Tuesday, Sept. 15, 2015, in Middletown, Calif. The fire that sped through Middletown and other parts of rural Lake County, less than 100 miles north of San Francisco, has continued to burn since Saturday despite a massive firefighting effort. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson)

By Associated Press 1 min read

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (AP) – Wildfires that have overwhelmed firefighters in California this summer are stumping computer models designed to predict where they’ll burn.

CalFire Director Ken Pimlott said Monday that fires are exceeding what models will predict during the drought.

A U.S. Forest Service manager says fires have expanded faster and that’s one factor that could be making modeling harder.

It’s not clear if modeling would have predicted the rapid growth of a blaze in Lake County that torched more than 60 square miles in 12 hours, destroyed nearly 600 homes and killed a woman last weekend.

But Pimlott says CalFire ran models hundreds of times that couldn’t replicate the rapid growth of a fire in the same area in late July. That fire destroyed 43 homes and spread over 100 square miles.