WASHINGTON (AP) – U.S. intelligence analysts are increasingly convinced that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro is likely to be pushed aside by members of his own socialist movement before finishing his term.
Senior American intelligence officials said Friday that as Venezuela’s economy spins out of control, Maduro’s grip on power is more fragile. They briefed reporters on condition of anonymity because they weren’t authorized to discuss their assessments by name.
Since December, when the opposition won legislative elections by a landslide, the country has been wracked by growing political confrontation at a time of triple-digit inflation, widespread food shortages and almost daily hours-long blackouts across much of the nation.
In such a combustible environment, the circumstances under which Maduro could be forced to leave office before his six-year term ends in 2019 are varied, according to the officials. One described it as being able to hear the ice cracking without knowing where the floor will collapse.
But the analysis, based on intelligence they did not share, points to a period of potentially violent political turmoil that will have consequences for international bondholders, oil markets and Venezuela’s neighbors, especially Colombia.