It’s conference championship week for college football. On to the picks, and remember, all lines are from VegasInsider.com as of Thursday morning:
Clemson minus-9 over Miami. The Hurricanes go into the Atlantic Coast Conference title game without their three best offensive players (other than quarterback Malik Rosier) now that receiver Ahmmon Richards is out with a knee injury. Yes, you are paying a premium – Miami could not have played worse last week; Clemson was razor sharp against South Carolina – but considering the stakes and scenarios, it’s hard to see Miami’s offense having consistent success against that Tigers defense.
Florida Atlantic minus-11 over North Texas. OK, what do you expect from Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin considering a) his team put 69 points on North Texas in late October; b) he has a bigger platform than normal for his Owls (ESPN2 will televise this Conference USA title game); c) his offense is humming. Now know the best North Texas player, running back Jeffery Wilson (1,215 rushing yards, 16 touchdowns), is on the shelf with an ankle injury. That’s doubly painful for a run-first, play-action Mean Green offense that will have a hard time keeping up with this bunch of Owls. (Side note: Did you know that, similar to a pack of lions or a murder of crows, you would actually have a parliament of owls? So there’s that.) Florida Atlantic is No. 10 nationally in points per game, having averaged 39.8 this season; North Texas is 104th nationally in points allowed per game at 33.3. Hmmm.
Memphis plus-7.5 over Central Florida. This is for the American Athletic Conference title. Yes, Central Florida is unbeaten and last week’s win over South Florida was one of the best games of the season. It’s also worth noting these Knights walloped Memphis 40-13 in September. But since that Sept. 30 loss, the Tigers have posted 70, 30, 42, 56, 41, 66 and 70 points in their seven-game winning streak. That’s salty. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson threw three picks in the loss to the Knights, but he has thrown three total in the seven games since. And here’s the kicker: How much has all the Scott Frost-to-Nebraska talk distracted his Knights? Enough to keep this within a touchdown one way or the other.
Oklahoma minus-7 over TCU. It’s for the Big 12 championship, and this is the type of game in which coach Gary Patterson has always thrived. Everyone doubting his TCU bunch. A high-powered offense humming on all cylinders. Embracing the underdog role like a champ. But this Oklahoma team is different, especially on offense. All of the background noise involving Baker Mayfield, whether he meant for it to have this effect or not, has galvanized the Sooners around their controversial quarterback. And he has embraced the challenge. Dude is simply playing at a different level than almost everyone else. Try these numbers for the crotch-grabbing, F-bomb-dropping Heisman front-runner: 4,097 passing yards, .714 completion percentage, 37 touchdown passes, five interceptions, 255 rushing yards and five touchdown runs. Yes, TCU can craft a defense for almost anyone. Mayfield is far from almost anyone. (Yes, you should buy the half here, too.)