Democrat Doug Jones’ win in Alabama last Tuesday is a significant victory that verifies some basic principles but also warrants a few observations.
First, turning out your base wins elections. Doug Jones and the Democrats excelled by mobilizing all demographics in their voting bloc, not just a core base. Women, young voters, blacks and those angered by Donald Trump turned out. According to an analysis by The New York Times, the turnout in Jefferson County, a key area for Democrats, exceeded the 2014 governor’s race vote total by 30 percent. Early, uncertified vote totals show that the total turnout in Alabama reached 40.4 percent, far exceeding the projected overall turnout of 25 percent.
Second, Doug Jones benefited from a unified base after the primary. While the Republican primary consumed much of the news space, the Democrats fielded seven candidates in their August primary but quickly solidified their vote behind their nominee. This also was a key factor that boosted an unlikely winner in a red Southern state that hadn’t elected a Democratic senator in 25 years.
Those principles should inform folks right-of-center in the 2018 elections ahead. Voter turnout and base unity cannot be replaced with well-funded, highly marketed campaigns.
Robin SmithOne observation from Tuesday’s election result is that Republicans would do well to appreciate unintended consequence of crowded primaries – sometimes, the worst candidate wins. In the case of the GOP primary, Roy Moore advanced from a three-way primary in which incumbent Sen. Luther Strange lost because of his identity tied to a do-nothing Republican Senate and Rep. Mo Brooks who, while a social conservative, suffered from the establishment label of being part of the D.C. swamp.