Fab 4 picks
When you are picking college football games against the spread – for entertainment purposes only, of course – there is a hard and unavoidable truth. Some times you play the right side and get the wrong result.
It’s one of the reasons that if you find someone hitting 60 percent or better, enjoy the entertainment ride. (Yes, we are right there, and yes we have kind of treaded water in the last month or so.
But that’s the buzz and the high of the hunt for entertainment.
Take last week. We had N.C. State plus-2. N.C. State outgainned Wake Forest by 168 yards but fumbled heading into the end zone in the final 90 seconds and threw a pick in the end zone on the final play in a 30-24 loss.
MTSU missed a game-winning
That’s the difference between 4-2 and 3-3. Hey, it happens. Want sure things? Spend big coin for one share of Apple stock.
That’s entertainment, baby. With that, let’s get to a rivalry week slate that looks like a Thanksgiving-like entertainment buffet, filled with playable games.
UNLV plus-3 over Nevada. We speak often about what we know, and never is that more important than in a rivalry game. Here’s what we know: UNLV has an emerging star in freshman quarterback Armani Rogers. UNLV, which lost to Howard in Rogers’ college debut, is amazingly one win from bowl eligibility. Nevada is 2-9 and those three are against the less-than-impressive pair of Hawaii and San Jose State, each of which is 1-10 this year. Buy the half and ride the best player on the field and the team with the most for which to play.
Cal plus-7.5 over UCLA. Yes, UCLA is the best player on the field and the Bruins are at home. But UCLA just relieved coach Jim Mora of his duties, so that variable – which can be good or bad – is hard to know. Here’s what easy to see; Cal coach Justin Wilcox knows what the heck he’s doing, especially with an overachieving if still somewhat overmanned Bears defense. And Wilcox has been excellent against teams that believe they have an elite quarterback and passing game as Cal ranks No. 9 in the country and first in the pass-happy Pac-12 allowing just 168.4 passing yards a game. A win would get the Bears into the postseason, and here’s betting they have something in mind for Rosen and UCLA, which may have fired all its bullets in last week’s rivalry setback against USC.
Boston College minus-3 over Syracuse. The Eagles have been an underplayed story. In a must-have year for head coach Steve Addazio, BC has been physical and competitive, and found ways to win even after losing quarterback Anthony Brown to a knee injury late in the year. Boston College has won four of five, including a blowout of FSU and wins at Virginia and Louisville, each a more difficult place to play that the Carrier Dome. Now know that BC tailback A.J. Dillion has more than 1,200 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs and gets to face an Orange defense that is allowing more than 5 yards a carry and almost 190 yards a game on the ground. Buy the half to be safe, but we believe BC gets win seven rather comfortably in this one.
Memphis minus-27.5 over East Carolina. Simply put there’s not a line high enough in this one. The biggest line on the board this weekend is Oklahoma State laying 41 against Kansas, and we think Memphis-ECU is a bigger mismatch.
Notre Dame minus-2.5 over Stanford. This is a very weird scenario for a rivalry of sorts in that Stanford may be wise to rest its players – including nicked up running back Heisman runner-up contender Bryce Love – for the Pac-12 title game first weekend of December. Stanford survived a physical game against Cal last week – another great job by Justin Wilcox, mind you – and Notre Dame hung on to beat Navy. This game has a lot of similarities between the N.C. State-Notre Dame game earlier this year, in which the Irish’s strength – an offensive line littered with seniors headed to the NFL – against a talented front seven. Notre Dame rolled that day, and here’s betting the Irish post a similar result this weekend.
FAU minus-21 over Charlotte. OK, other than maybe Hawaii (the Rainbow Snugglers are 0-9-1 against the spread in their last 10), Lane Kiffin’s FAU Owls have been the wise play for entertainment hunters for the last two months. FAU is 6-1 against the number and 7-0 overall since the last day of September. Kiffin enjoys posting monster numbers – the Owls have scored 30 or more in each of those seven wins and are averaging 48.1 points in that stretch – because he can. He also has one of the best running backs you have not heard about in Devin Singletary, who has 1,524 rushing yards and 25 total TDs this season. Now know that Charlotte is dreadful and at home has losses to North Carolina A&T and Georgia State (by 28 mind you). Here’s betting the Lane Train drops 60-plus on the 49ers.
Last week: 3-3 against the spread (50 percent)
This season: 40-26-1 against the spread (60.6 percent)
SEC items of interest
Ah rivalry week around the league. Before we get to the items to watch, we’re happy to rank our SEC rivalries when it comes to football teams.
Alabama-Auburn. Sorry Johnny Vols Fans, and we know you hate Alabama with a burning passion that can keep you warm on even the coldest of nights, but this one is tops.
Every other game.
Any questions?
Yes, there’s a lot of hate to go around, and the fact that Alabama has no fewer than three teams in the SEC that view it as their biggest rival – in-state Auburn, UT and LSU – is a testament to how good the Tide have been and for how long.
With that, let’s explore some things to watch on a weekend that college football fans need to make sure you have your head on a swivel and the batteries in your remote.
First down. Iron Bowl with everything in play. Yes, it’s the SEC’s biggest rivalry, but in truth, the country needs to recognize that this has been the most meaningful regular-season game for almost a decade. The winner of this game has played for a national title in every year but one since 2009, and that was in 2014 when Alabama won the game and lost in the college football playoff semifinal. As for this year’s game, how Auburn handles that type of pressure will be quite telling. That amount of intensity and scrutiny almost always consumes every program in the country. The exception? Yep, those guys that get brow-beaten by Nick Saban. Yes, Auburn smoked then-No. 1-ranked Georgia a couple of weeks ago in a similar setting. Well, it was similar in number but not in complete scenario. Georgia wasn’t ready for that then, and you have to wonder if Auburn is ready for it now and is prepared to deal with the win and-advance to the biggest of goals. Alabama is used to that background noise every Saturday, including the spring game.
Second down. Iron forged in the trenches. As for how the Iron Bowl will be decided, yes, how Auburn handles the moment and the magnitude is hard to overstate. How each offensive line handles the defensive fronts littered with future Sunday stars will be the difference. Plain and simple. If Alabama twists and overpowers the Auburn front and turns quarterback Jarrett Stidham into the wide-eyed sophomore who froze at Clemson, then game over. If the Tigers front allows Stidham to look the part of cool and poised five-star recruit like he did against Georgia, then game on.
Third down. State of confusion. It has been a dreadful season for the two power five programs in the great state of Tennessee. Heck, if you had a power poll of in-state schools, there’s no doubt Memphis gets the 1 seed, Austin Peay has the best story, and Brentwood Academy has had the most accomplished season. The you have Tennessee and Vandy and the duo’s collective 0-14 SEC record. And you know what, other than an early gut-punch to Florida in which the Vols did Vols things and the train left Butch Jones’ station for good, it really has not even been close in SEC play for UT and VU with the exception of tight losses to the ever-overachieving South Carolina Gamecocks. So, who you got in a game that features very movable objects and amazingly resistible forces? VU senior Ralph Webb, who, along with LSU pass rusher Arden Key, ranks as one of the more puzzling disappointments in this year’s SEC, could have a big game. Or not. Here’s betting one team figures out a way to lose this one rather than the other way around.
Fourth down. The Egg Bowl. We love this rivalry, and it has been bitter and fierce for a while now. A fact and a fire that has routinely been flamed by Mississippi State coach Dan Mullen. Yes, we have our eye on Georgia-Georgia Tech (we believe the Bulldogs have too much for the Jackets) and Clemson-South Carolina (but again, the talent meter clearly points to the visitor in that one, too). We also are watching to see if the U.S.S. Missouri offensive destroyer rolls over Arkansas, which is in a precarious place of either winning that game out right or losing by 45. But the anger and hatred between Ole Miss and Mississippi State – remember the role Mississippi State’s players and a MSU fan-site writer had in the NCAA nightmare that landed in Oxford – make this one must-see TV on Thanksgiving night.
Hall of Fame decisions
Well, on the same day that the new Hall of Fame ballot dropped, there was a very interesting letter sent to Hall of Fame voters by Joe Morgan.
Chipper Jones is on it for the first time, and you have to believe Larry will get the call in Year 1. Side note: If you are one of those folks who pay attention to WAR – Wins Against Replacement – Chipper’s 85.0 is the sixth-best WAR among third basemen ever behind Schmidt (106.5), Eddie Mathews (96.4), Adrian Beltre (93.9), Wade Boggs (91.1) and George Brett (88.4). Side question: Is anyone else surprised Beltre’s numbers are THAT good? Wow.
Jim Thome’s also on it, and he should be a first ballot guy considering he has 600-plus homers and all.
Andruw Jones is also on it, and his case – 434 career homers and the best defensive outfielder of his generation – is better than most realize, especially Braves fans because while he’s a borderline Hall of Famer, a lot of us will always think he underachieved in a lot of ways. A. Jones’ WAR is better than Vlad Guerrero’s and Sammy Sosa’s, so there’s that.
Omar Vizquel will be on the ballot, and if you are going to let Ozzie Smith in Vizquel has a strong case too.
A couple of lefties are interesting cases too. Johan Santana, who had very similar career arc to those of Max Scherzer and Clayton Kershaw before blowing out his shoulder, and Jamie Moyer and his 269 career wins are on the ballot.
It’s a ballot that has pizzazz, and that sizzle was derailed some by Morgan’s letter begging the voters not to let any of the known PED users into the Hall.
Here’s the story on the letter and a look at it. Powerful stuff and he makes a lot of interesting points.
Here’s the fine line that gets frequently blurred, since the testing was so sketchy and the terms of the deals so shady, we’re not sure who did and did not, even a lot of the guys above could have.
What do you think?
This and that
– Speaking of baseball, the MLB dropped the hammer on the Atlanta Braves for their rules violations in terms of international player negotiations. Former Braves GM John Coppolella has been permanently banned and the Braves lost 13 international minor league players they signed in recent years.
– Speaking of baseball, let the negotiation begin for Shohei Ohtani, aka “The Japanese Babe Ruth,” who has been cleared to play in the majors in 2018. Dude is a power hitter and power pitcher that could turn the MLB into a 10-year-all-star tournament.
– Well-done Thanksgiving story from TFP ace sports columnist Mark Wiedmer on the Howard football program helping others during the holiday. Good times.
– Hey, the world is spinning and The President is tweeting about LaVar Ball. Great. Here’s his latest: “It wasn’t the White House, it wasn’t the State Department, it wasn’t father LaVar’s so-called people on the ground in China that got his son out of a long term prison sentence – IT WAS ME. Too bad! LaVar is just a poor man’s version of Don King, but without the hair. Just think.”
Today’s questions
Do you agree with the college football playoff committee’s rankings that had Miami slide up to No. 2?
On this day, Nov. 22, there’s a lot that happened folks. Scarlett Johansson was born and for that we should all give thanks. She is 33. Scream queen Jamie Lee Curtis is 59 today. On this day JFK was assassinated on this day in 1963. On this day in 1955, RCA paid $35K to Sun Records for Elvis Presley’s contract. That worked out pretty well for RCA.
Tennis greats Billie Jean King (74) and Boris Becker (50) celebrate birthdays today.
As for a Rushmore, on this day 11/22, let’s do the all-time sports Rushmore of players who wore a double number. (Think Hammerin’ Hank’s 44 and Gretzky’s 99 and the front-runners.)
Go, and remember the mailbag.