Fab four picks
Interesting insight from our Press Row cohort David Paschall in his weekly picks column in the TFP. Here’s his work.
And yes, we are firmly against expanding the college football playoff. Why you ask?
Well, if the playoff is six or eight teams, then the Iron Bowl last week meant nothing for Alabama, and in truth, with a six- or eight-team field, losing the Iron Bowl would have been the better play for the Tide so they could rest.
That’s not the college football realm in which we want to live. And we are willing to sacrifice one team that may have a beef about a playoff resume every few years than sacrificing the week-in, week-out gloriousness of the best regular season in sports.
And what Paschall points out is that with these matchups, there are two for sure quarterfinals games this weekend (ACC and SEC title games), which means that six teams are currently in the playoff. And if you think that THE Ohio State and Wisconsin is a play-in game, that’s another quarterfinal and gets to seven playoff teams.
Giddy up.
Clemson minus-9 over Miami. Miami will be without its three best offensive players other than quarterback now that receiver Ahmmon Richards is out with a knee injury. Yes, you are paying a premium – Miami could not have played worse last week; Clemson was razor sharp against South Carolina – but, considering the stakes and scenarios, it’s hard to see Miami’s offense having consistent success against that Tigers defense.
Florida Atlantic minus-11 over North Texas. OK, what do you expect from Lane Kiffin considering that a) he put 69 on North Texas earlier this season; b) he has a bigger platform than normal for his FAU Owls – this game is on ESPN2 on Saturday; and c) his offense is humming. Now know that North Texas’s best player – running back Jeffery Wilson and his 1,215 rushing yards and 16 TDs – is on the shelf with an ankle injury. That’s doubly painful for a run-first, play-action Mean Green offense that will have a hard time keeping up with this Owls bunch. (Side note: Did you know that if you have a pack of lions or a murder of crows, you actually have a parliament of owls? So there’s that.) How’s this for stats that? FAU is No. 10 nationally in points per game at 39.8; North Texas is 104th nationally in points allowed at 33.3 per game. Hmmmmmmm.
Memphis plus-7.5 over Central Florida. Yes, Central Florida is unbeaten and last week’s win over South Florida was one of the best games of the season. It also is worth noting that UCF walloped Memphis 40-13 back in September. That was Memphis’ last loss, and the Tigers have scored 30 or more in ever game since. (Since that Sept. 30 loss to the Knights, Memphis has posted 70, 30, 42, 56, 41, 66 and 70 points in its seven-game win streak. That’s salty.) Memphis QB Riley Ferguson threw three picks in the loss to the Knights; Ferguson has thrown three total picks in the seven games since. And here’s the kicker: How much has all the Scott Frost-to-Nebraska talk distracted this UCF team? We think enough to keep this within a touchdown one way or the other.
Oklahoma minus-7 over TCU. This is a game that Gary Patterson has always thrived in. Everyone doubting his TCU bunch. A high-powered offense humming on all cylinders. Embracing the underdog role like a champ. But this OU team is different, especially on offense. All of the background noise involving Baker Mayfield, whether he meant to or not, has galvanized this team around their controversial quarterback. And he has embraced the challenge. Dude is simply playing at a different level than almost everyone else. Try these numbers for the crotch-grabbing, F-bomb-dropping Heisman front-runner: 4,097 passing yards, 71.4 completion percentage, 37 TDs, 5 picks and 255 rushing yards and five TDs on the ground. Yes, TCU can craft a defense for almost anyone. Baker Mayfield is far from almost anyone. (Yes, we’re buying the half, here too.)
USC minus-3 over Stanford. The only conference-title game with no implications on the college football playoff. But these teams have routinely mentioned winning the conference title as a goal, and that makes for a good matchup on Friday. USC played arguably its best game when it whipped Stanford 42-24 during the regular season. Stanford looked great last week against a Notre Dame team, which played its finest game in whipping USC. The transitive property – USC whips Stanford; Notre Dame whips USC; Stanford whips Notre Dame – is why hunting entertainment in picking college football games is crazy. Stanford has traditionally been at its best when it can run and faces a team that likes to run. That allows a physical front seven and The Cardinal safeties to suffocate early downs. USC is going to spread Stanford out, and this Stanford defense has struggled this year against teams that can spread it out. Stanford’s two Pac-12 losses were against Washington State and USC, and The Cardinal allowed 316 passing yards and four TDs to USC star Sam Darnold and 337 yards and three scores to WSU’s Luke Falk. (And yes, we’d buy the half to be safe.)
Louisiana-Monroe plus-28 over FSU. OK, do we think La.-Monroe wins? Of course not. But let’s review what we know about this game. FSU played its biggest of the season last weekend, so there has to be a let down, right? The environment – FSU rescheduled this game after the hurricane cancellation just to get to a sixth win and continue its 35-year bowl streak – figures to be spring-game-like. La.-Monroe is 4-7 and eliminated from bowl contention, so why not roll the dice and play loose and free as your program cashes an almost seven-figure check. Again, the Warhawks are not going to win, but it’s also hard to see a struggling FSU offense win this one by four TDs, too.
Last week: 3-3 against the spread (50 percent)
This season: 43-29-1 against the spread (59.7 percent)
Georgia sophomore receiver Mecole Hardman had a 47-yard kickoff return and a 30-yard punt return during the Bulldogs’ 40-17 loss at Auburn on Nov. 11. The teams meet again Saturday at the SEC championship game in Atlanta.SEC items of interest
We do this each week, and with only one SEC game, well, you have a pretty clear idea of where the focus is.
First down. How’s the shoulder Kerryon? This is easily the biggest detail of the biggest game of the SEC season. If Auburn running back Kerryon Johnson is healthy – and, by that we mean completely healthy, like he gets his normal 30 carries a game healthy – then Auburn is the better football team. Without Johnson and a reliable hammer for an Auburn offense that has embraced great balance in this season’s second-half surge to get the Tigers to No. 2 in the rankings, well, that’s a tough order against a Georgia defense that has been able to gut and crush one-dimensional teams or teams that rely completely on the quarterback. (See Tech, Georgia and State, Mississippi). With a healthy Johnson, Auburn is as good as any team in the country. Without Johnson – and Auburn played and lost at Clemson and barely beat mercer 24-10 in the two games Johnson missed this season – this not the same team.
Second down. Dome-field advantage. Georgia had a three-week head start to acquiring tickets at Mercedes Benz for this de facto college football quarterfinal. And considering the number of Bulldogs backers in and around the city of Atlanta, well, here’s betting that close to 70 percent of stadium will be in red. That’s a stark contrast to the monster edge Auburn had playing at a rocking Jordan-Hare a few weeks ago.
Third down. Paging the Georgia offensive line. Georgia has rushed for 3,188 yards this season, a number that ranks ninth nationally with 265.7 per game. Against Auburn, Georgia rushed for less than 50 and quarterback Jake Fromm was sacked four times. And Auburn, like it has against most teams, generated that rush without bringing a ton of pressure as the defensive front dominated the game. If Johnson’s health is Auburn’s biggest concern, how much better the offensive line can play is Georgia’s biggest issue.
Fourth down. A non-title-game thing to watch. There is one SEC item of interest this week outside of Mercedes Benz and the Auburn-Georgia rematch. Alabama sits No. 5 in the college football playoff rankings and for those Tide folks watching from home and wondering how Alabama can get into the playoff, well, here’s the best path as we see it. Alabama needs Auburn to win Saturday to help validate the Tide’s only loss. Alabama needs Clemson to win Saturday night, because if Clemson loses a close one, the defending champs will make a strong case to be the non-conference champ over Alabama. Miami has no such argument. Alabama would prefer Wisconsin to beat THE Ohio State, but despite what a lot of people may think, that game has less meaning on Alabama than most realize. We think the way committee chairman Kirby Hocutt was speaking Tuesday night that it feels like the Big Ten winner is in the playoff either way. Most importantly for Alabama this weekend, the Tide really need TCU to topple Baker Mayfield to have any chance going into Sunday’s selection show.
In this 2008 staff file photo, former UT quarterback Tee Martin waves to the crowd while being honored before the the game against UAB at Neyland Stadium.Running UT Big Board
It was Stewwie’s idea, but we are going to keep this up until there is no longer a need. (And here’s TFP ace columnist Mark Wiedmer doing his thing as well as anyone with another John Currie talking point.)
The details of the previous missteps can be viewed in yesterday’s 5-at-10 here. Shall we will recap, add the next head-scratching follies and look forward? Absolutely.
OK, the lily pads that everyone’s favorite toad John Currie has skipped to and from, be them official or rumored are Gruden, Kelly, Mullen, Schiano, Cutcliffe, Gundy and Brohm.
That list does not include the denials from former Vols Jason Witten and Jim Bob Cooter this week because we can’t believe anyone with UT contacted them and they were just answering random media questions. This also does not list Scott Frost, who we are hearing more and more only had ears for Florida and Nebraska.
Wednesday’s moving and shaking lead everyone to believe that Jeff Brohm is staying at Purdue, which is akin to an Auburn basketball coach staying put if say Indiana came calling. Ouch-standing. There also have been whispers that Chad Morris has declined UT overtures, which make sense considering Morris would have to believe he has a real shot at the Texas A&M gig if the Jimbo Fisher thing falls through.
With that the top three on our big board remains Leach, Kiffin and Mike Norvell. We no longer believe Kiffin would take it considering all of the social media back and forth that is going on, and we think Norvell has wisely been quiet on all fronts and could be in play for the Arkansas opening.
So with that – and as Dave ‘Bleeping’ Doeren mulls over a reported Tennessee offer – we’ll add three new names to our unofficial, completely 5-at-10 Hot Wings are better than Hot Boards Hot Board:
1. Mike Leach.
2. Kevin Sumlin.
3. Les Miles.
4. Tee Martin.
(Side note: We also saw on social media that former Vols All-American Donte Stalworth tweeted that he could confirm that a Kiffin as HC, Martin as OC and Kevin Steele as DC package was pitched and turned down. Take that for what it’s worth.)
Yes, two weeks ago, we were anti-Les Miles, but considering that UT is now trying to hire Doeren, who started the season on the hot seat in at N.C. State and has a very similar record in the ACC as Butch Jones did in the SEC over the last few years, Miles is looking better and better.
Side note, part II; If you are sad that the circus that has been the UT coaching search may be coming to end. Rest easy, in the very near future, here’s betting we’re going through a UT athletic search. Ah, the UT beat, where there’s never, EVER, a normal day.
This and that
– Speaking of coaching moves, FSU is drawing its line in the sand with Jimbo Fisher. Here’s ESPN’s report and man, this sounds like a scenario in which the Aggies landed their dude, right?
-Speaking of coaching moves and landing a dude, Arizona State is reportedly about to lock down Herm Edwards as its next head coach. Raise your hand if you think that was a good move. We’ll wait.
– Speaking of coaching craziness, an FSU fan was booted from the coaches call in show when he questioned Jimbo’s loyalty Wednesday night and there was a UT basketball fan who was arrested, in part, Wednesday for being part of the “Fire Currie!” chants at the Boling Alley as the Vols rolled Mercer.
– Hey Tiger is back playing a golf tournament. Here you go. Tiger is 33-to-1 to win the tournament
Today’s questions
What is a reasonable expectation for Tiger Woods’ return to golf?
And considering Vegas is offering a ton of Tiger Woods prop bets, let’s play along:
Will Tiger’s first tee shot find the fairway: Yes is -160; no +140.
First round score over/under 71.5.
Lowest score of the weekend over/under 68.5.
Highest round of the weekend over/under 74.5.
Tiger finishes top-five: Yes +600; no -900.
Tiger finishes top 10: Yes, +200; no -250.
Tiger finishes last: Yes +300; no -400.
Will Tiger WD: Yes +350; no -450.
So there you go.
Also will Dave Doeren be the next UT football coach?
On this day four years ago, the Kick Six happened. Dude that was some craziness right there.
Also on Nov. 30, my man Bo Jackson is 55 today. Mark Twian (1835) and Winston Churchill (1874) were also born on this day. Dick Clark would have been 88 today and Billy Idol is 62.
The underrated Elisha Cuthbert (35) and Mandy Patinkin (65, and hello, his name is Inigo Montoya. You killed his father. Prepare to die.) are celebrating birthdays.
As for a Rushmore, Ben Stiller is 52 today and considering the great work his old man Jerry Stiller has done in the day, let’s go Rushmore of comedy father-son tandems.
Go, and remember the mailbag.