Fab 4 picks
We make our picks around these parts against the spread. For those unaware or new to this space, the professional betters in Las Vegas set a line – called a point spread – on every FBS game. If you see the Mississippi State minus-11 over Kentucky, that means if you bet on Mississippi State, the Bulldogs have to defeat the Wildcats by more than 11 points to “win” in the eyes of the gambling world.
Of course, these extra points can make one-sided games very nerve-wracking.
Now we make these picks for ‘entertainment’ purposes only, and please remember to chase entertainment responsibly.
UAB minus-7 over UNC Charlotte. Little tip in the garden scheme of picking games. This is week 8 of the season. If you can find teams that are playing their eighth straight against a team that has had a recent bye, there is value there. When one of those teams is 5-1 against the spread like UAB and the other is 0-7 overall and 2-5 vs. the number like Charlotte – which may be the worst team in the country – it’s extra value. UAB is motivated and into this and with two more wins would be bowl eligible, and one of the better stories around. (Yes, buy the half.)
Florida State minus-7 over Louisville. Man, at the start of the season, this game appeared to have much higher stakes. Here’s what we know at this moment: Florida State has a lot of likable parts as it tries to rework its offense around its young quarterback. Louisville has a great quarterback and a lot of unlikable parts – the Cards D allowed 45 points last week at home to a Boston College, which had a previous season-high of 28 and that was against the Fightin’ Chippewas of Central Michigan. We think FSU is about to go on a bit of run; there’s simply too much talent around there. Unless Lamar Jackson goes for 350-passing, 150-running, this one will get one-sided. (Buy the half to be safe.)
West Virginia minus-9 over Baylor. We’re buying stock in the West Virginia offense. And we all expect a 4-2 Mountaineers bunch to beat a bagel-and-6 Baylor crew, correct? Well, in WVU wins, it has scored 46 once, 56 twice and 59 once. Against Power Five foes, Baylor has allowed 34, 49, 33 and 59. Yes please.
Iowa minus-1.5 over Northwestern. A Chicago-area nooner, and yes we believe that Northwestern’s Pat Fitzgerald is a very good coach. But we also believe he is going into knife fights with squirt guns when it comes to talent. Consider the 3-3 Wildcats have wins against Nevada, Bowling Green and a Maryland team turning to its third-string quarterback. Its losses are to teams with as good (Duke) or better personnel (Wisconsin and Penn State). We believe Iowa’s personnel to be better.
Notre Dame minus-3.5 over USC. We’d buy the number to an even field to ease the Saturday night concerns, but we find ourselves in the rarest of rare spots: Notre Dame may actually be underrated by the betting public here. As good as we believe Sam Darnold can be on Sundays, Notre Dame quarterback Brandon Wimbush may be better on Saturdays. And please do not forget about the injury issues USC has across its offensive front. This one could be close for a while, but Notre Dame is simply the better side.
Last week 5-1 against the spread (83.3 precent)
This year: 24-14-1 against the spread (63.2 percent)
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SEC items of interest
The divide in the SEC is great. Think Grand Canyon. Only bigger.
Alabama, Georgia and the rest of the league.
Georgia is off, and Alabama might as well be.
First down. Rivalry in name only? Alabama is a 36-point favorite over Tennessee as of Thursday morning. Yes, more than five touchdowns, and in Vegas’ view, Tennessee in year five of Butch Jones is somewhere between scandal-ravaged Ole Miss (which was a 30-point underdog in Tuscaloosa) and Fresno State (which was a 42-point underdog). How did we get to this point? Yes, Nick Saban is the best in the business, but to get to this point, it takes both sides doing their best/worst. Considering the money and tradition and passion behind the University of Tennessee, the Vols shouldn’t be a 36-point underdog against anyone this side of the 1985 Bears.
Second down. OK, there are some pretty blah-tastic games on the docket. That’s for sure. So, let’s take another angle to the Tennessee-Alabama skirmish: Will this be the last game for Coach Jones in Tennessee orange? It’s a layered question of course. Because if the decision is done, would you still pull the trigger if UT pulls off the miracle of beating Alabama? Most likely not. But what happens if UT pulls of a near-miracle and finds the end zone and gets a special team play and Alabama has its worst game and the final is 24-17? But in actuality, our sample size is plenty big enough to have formed an opinion on Jones, regardless of what happens in T-Town, so a decision could already have been made, right? Plus, Sunday seems like the best day, because as uneven as LSU is and as typically November-esque this Tennessee season is, after Saturday’s drubbing at Alabama, Jones and this bunch could circle the wagons and close at 7-5 or even 8-4. Then what do you do. As for predictions, we think Saturday gets ugly for Tennessee players and fans. And we believe Sunday gets ugly for Jones.
Third down. Can Gus Malzahn save Auburn’s season? Malzahn derailed six weeks of momentum and feel-good in two quarters last Saturday evening in Baton Rouge. That was the ultimate case of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory friends and it falls in the laps of the coaching staff, which amazingly became more conservative than Fox News after building a 20-0 lead. Now comes a trip to Arkansas, and in a lot of ways a game that could help salvage the scuffling Razorbacks’ season. We believe this: If Malzahn can’t handle this task on Saturday – with dates against the big dogs and bitter rivals of UGA and Alabama still on deck in November – his sweater vest is all but washed friends.
Fourth down. Ole Miss looking to share the pain. OK, we know Ole Miss is dealing with a lot of stuff. A lot. NCAA folks. A defense that apparently is allergic to form tackling. A lame duck staff trying its best to try its best. Hey, there are issues. Well, here’s what they have: A legit quarterback with a slew of big, physical and capable wide receivers. And with the self-inflicted postseason ban, the Rebel Landsharks are always looking for a little extra motivation. Here’s some: Former coach Ed Orgeron rolling into town talking about chicken on a stick at the Exxon in Oxford.
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Pitino speaks
Well, that was interesting
Former Louisville coach Rick Pitino sat down with ESPN’s Jay Bilas. It was enlightening, at least in the fact that Pitino has gone full-blown Costanza on us and has embraced the saying, “If you truly believe it, it can’t be a lie.”
Here’s the interview. Bilas’ questions were good.
Pitino’s answers were short.
And when Count Pitino went into the lie detector angle as to why he’s telling the truth, well, all of us who have seen more than three episodes of Law & Order know what that means.
He’s lying through his fangs.
And who better to be able to beat a lie-detector test than a college basketball coach/adulterer/racketeer/undead vampire, right?
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This and that
– Yankees won last night 5-0 to take a 3-2 lead in the ALCS. Side question: Is this the most likable New York team ever and the most likable Yankees team since Mickey Mantle was involved?
– The Cubs beat the Dodgers 3-2 to extend the NLCS. Kershaw gets the ball tonight with a chance to kind of rewrite his postseason narrative if he can get them to the World Series for the first time since 1988.
– Side note: Did you know that tonight is one of the rare times when all four major professional sports are in action? Good times and make sure the clicker is fully loaded.
– Cheifs-Raiders tonight. Alex Smith is 9-1 against the Raiders. So there’s that.
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Today’s question
Have you offered a mailbag entry? If not, why not?
Did you know that the world’s largest gold nudger was found on this day (215kg) in 1872.
Justin Timberlake and Jessica Biel celebrate their fifth wedding anniversary today.
Evander Holyfield is 55 today.
Let’s go there: Would “Real Deal” crack the Rushmore of best boxing nicknames?
Go.
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