TENNESSEE (3-4, 0-4 SEC) at KENTUCKY (5-2, 2-2)
7:30 p.m. EDT ‘ Kroger Field in Lexington, Ky.
SEC Network & 106.5 FM
THE MATCHUP
Kentucky is a fluke loss to Florida away from being 6-1 and still having a legitimate shot at winning the Southeastern Conference’s East Division. Tennessee is just trying to score a touchdown on offense for the first time since Sept. 23. That said, both squads are coming off 45-7 road losses to SEC West foes last weekend, and it’s clear both have myriad of problems to solve. A forecast for frigid weather favors Kentucky, which can try and wear down the Tennessee defense on the ground, just as the Volunteers’ past three opponents did. With star running back John Kelly suspended, the Vols will rely on freshmen Ty Chandler and Tim Jordan and sophomore Carlin Fils-aime to contribute in a key role for a lifeless offense. Kentucky is tied for 21st nationally with a plus-six turnover margin; the Vols are tied for 93rd with a minus-three turnover margin. With the Wildcats favored to win by four points, this is the kind of game that could come down to a turnover.
ONES TO WATCH
The perimeter matchups could be where this game is decided. Tennessee’s per-game average of 165.1 passing yards ranks last in the SEC, but Kentucky ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed per game (270.1). How the battle between Tennessee’s ineffective wide receivers and a struggling Kentucky secondary will shake out is anybody’s guess. Kentucky coach Mark Stoops was clearly displeased with the performance of his defensive backs in last week’s loss at Mississippi State. “In the secondary, we’re making very few competitive plays,” he said. “When we’re in one-on-one situations, to my count in that game, we lost all 10 that’s not acceptable.” Tennessee’s receivers, meanwhile, have struggled to gain separation from press coverage all season. A big play from sophomore Marquez Callaway, freshman Josh Palmer or sophomore Tyler Byrd, who has been absent from the game plan in recent weeks, would go a long way toward helping Tennessee’s confidence.
IN THE END
Playing on the road without Kelly is a tall order for the Vols, who need six straight wins to match their victory total for each of the past two seasons. The Wildcats, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for. This year’s Kentucky team could easily become the first in a decade to reach eight wins. An added incentive is that this senior class has never beaten Tennessee. The Vols will snap their streak of 14 consecutive quarters without an offensive touchdown, but it won’t be enough to get them back in the win column, and a Tennessee loss today would be only its second to Kentucky since 1984. Commend the decision makers at Tennessee for exercising prudence in evaluating coach Butch Jones’ performance and not prematurely cowering to an angry fan base. But if Jones can’t get the job done against Kentucky, it will probably just be a matter of when, not if, a change is made.
PREDICTION: Kentucky 27, Tennessee 20