Fab 4 picks
OK, a sour finish on Saturday night – it was like our picks had too many Co-Colas watching the Vols collapse late in Gainesville – gave us our first sub-.500 week.
The 2-3 mark left us 11-4 overall this season against the number. Entertaining for sure, but we need to be honest that we’re riding a three-game losing streak.
May we have another Co-Colas or three?
Still, the only way for cowboys to ride is to get back in the saddle.
Giddy-up.
This week is dangerous for a couple of reasons. Last week we had a hard time finding five games we like. This week we’re having a hard time narrowing it down to five. Because the way entertainment hunting works means the five we choose will be tight and the five we eliminate will roll. There are several SEC games we have feelings about, but these are the five we feel more strongly.
Giddy-up indeed.
San Diego State minus-3 over Air Force. The Aztecs are a legit Big Six bowl contender, especially after upsetting Stanford last week. Now, know that Air Force was physically beat on by a tough Michigan front. Yes, the game is at the Academy, and the let down factor is real after last week’s big win. But, Rocky Long’s bunch is legit – running back Rashaad Penny leads the nation in rushing and total yards per game – and this being the conference opener has more weight than the Aztecs’ two wins over Pac-12 foes.
South Alabama minus-3 over Idaho. Gang, we have a history of having success for mid-tier programs that have to make huge cross-country trips. Now add in that the price is right – the Jags have played the tougher schedule – their two losses are to Ole Miss and Oklahoma State; Idaho’s two losses are UNLV and Western Michigan – and have better athletes. Yes please. And as always with three-point lines, please buy the half. It’s like buckling your seat belt. You may not need it but if you do, you definitely want it.
Virginia Tech-Old Dominion over 52.5. Justin Fuentes has the Hokies rolling. They dropped 64 on East Carolina last week. North Carolina put 53 on the Monarchs last week, and know that as many as three projected preseason defensive starters may miss this week’s game with injuries or suspensions. Tech may but 53 on the board by itself.
Florida-UK under 45. This could be a 20-17 game either way. But with the suspensions for the Gators’ playmakers and the need for UK to be a little more conservative – Florida has three pick-6s already this year – this one screams final possession. Here’s betting each coach, looking at the conditions and the casts, would take 20 points right now and roll the dice.
Georgia minus-5.5 over Mississippi State. There are several other games on the board that we studied, but we picked Georgia in the Bullie Bowl for a couple of reasons. One of the underrated angles when looking for entertainment is managing the moment. For Mississippi State’s collection of 18-23-year-olds, hearing how great you are all week and how this is your time and how you are the second-best team in the SEC and having your coach on SportsCenter on Wednesday and all the bells and whistles and backslaps that come with hammering LSU has to be a) unfamiliar and b) extremely hard to handle. We do believe in Dan Mullen. He’s aces. But to be frank last week as much about Ed Orgeron being Ed Orgeron as Mullen proving his measure yet again. This just feels like the perfect spot for Georgia, and some times, you have to trust feel.
Bonus pick: Miamin minus-13.5 over Toledo. Sorry, there are simply too many games we like this week. This screams boatrace, old-school, Miami-livin-large, beatdown. Miami has not played since the opening weekend and returns home looking to bring joy to an area craving for it. Yes, there are concerns about rust since they just got back to practice last weekend after all the hurricane aftermath. And yes, Toledo is pretty salty offensively. But know this: Toledo runs a throw-it-a-lot scheme with a stationary quarterback. Miami’s front seven is slap nasty and wicked fast. Here’s betting Manny Diaz’ bunch plays lights out and the Hurricanes after all the distractions have a lot of fun on Saturday.
Last week: 2-3 against the spread (40 percent)
This season: 11-4 against the spread (73.3 percent)
Tennessee running back John Kelly (4) will see an old teammate from his youth — Florida linebacker David Reese — when the Vols play the Gators on Saturday in Gainesville.SEC items of interest
As conference play begins in earnest, there still are more questions than known commodities in this league. Sure we believe some things, and want to think some others, but beyond Alabama being the class and Missouri being last, there are so many unknowns.
Certainly, we’re not alone. In truth, how many of the coaches around the league are still wondering about key parts of their team? More than half, right?
With that, here’s some things to watch Saturday
First down. Bandwagon bowls. There has never been more belief in Vandy in my lifetime. Nick Saban says they should be ranked. The Commodores defense leads the nation in most categories. Derek Mason has gone from from 2015 hot seat talk to 2017 “Can we keep him in Nashville?” talk. For Mississippi State, everyone is guffawing at how smart Dan Mullen is, how Dak Prescott-y Nick Fitzgerald is and how talented that front seven has been. Heck, national shows are asking if MSU and Vandy are the second- and third-best teams in the SEC. That’s the power of 3-0 starts with impressive home upsets over ranked foes. This week, with everyone buying all the MSU and Vandy stock they can get their hands on, we’ll know more after Alabama goes to Nashville and the battle of the Bulldogs at Georgia.
Second down. Arkansas-Texas A&M in the desperation bowl. Maybe this should have been fourth down because this may be the last, best chance for either Bret Bielema or Kevin Sumlin to curry any sort of favor with his respective fan base. Bielema’s Hogs have always seems o play harder than Sumlin’s A&M teams, even if that has not always translated on the scoreboard in this series. Could it be possible that an A&M loss would mean Sumlin is canned next week?
Third down. Tennessee bounces back. Poor UMass. They have walked into a hornet’s nest. Here’s betting on the following numbers, and yes, it’s a shame we can’t list these as part of our picks: John Kelly gets more than 20 carries, and a large chunk of them are before the half; Kelly gets the first carry on UT’s first play inside the UMass 10; there will be between 10,000-15,000 empty seats; Jarrett Guarantano will get more than 15 snaps. Everyone connected to the UT program – players, fans and especially head coach Butch Jones – needs a feel good Saturday.
Fourth down. Is this the year? Last time Kentucky beat Florida was 1986. As TFP SEC ace David Paschall noted in today’s paper, the Wildcats’ win came the day after “Hoosiers” debuted in theaters. Here are some other details: In ’86, the Chernobyl reactor had issues, the Iran-Contra stuff happened, Maverick said he had the need for speed in Top Gun, Geraldo Rivera opened Al Capone’s vault, Bobby Ewing emerged from his shower and the previous season of Dallas was deemed a dream, the stadium wave was born in a FIFA soccer match in Mexico, the first Zelda Nintendo game was sold, NBC had six of the top seven rated TV shows and the book It from Stephen King was released. Heck, Steve Spurrier had not coached a college game yet in 1986 when UK last beat Florida. Still, it was not a good year for the Wildcats – rival Louisville won the NCAA basketball title in ’86 after all.
Seattle Seahawks defensive end Michael Bennett, center, is joined by teammates Thomas Rawls, left, and Justin Britt, right, as he sits during the singing of the national anthem before an NFL football game against the San Francisco 49ers, Sunday, Sept. 17, 2017, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Elaine Thompson) Next chapter
Three current NFL players and a recently retired former star have asked Roger Goodell to make November a month dedicated to social activism.
“We would like November to serve as a month of Unity for individual teams to engage and impact the community in their market,” the almost 3,000-word letter sent to the league office in August.
It was sent by defensive end Michael Bennett of the Seattle Seahawks, Philadelphia Eagles safety Malcolm Jenkins and receiver Torrey Smith, and former Arizona Cardinals wideout Anquan Boldin and was obtained by Yahoo Sports.
This will be interesting to follow.
On one hand, the term social activism seems positive and reads as a conduit to change. But the letter also includes, “similarly to what the league already implements for breast cancer awareness, honoring military, etc.”
For some, this will be viewed as the NFL backing the controversial protests of Colin Kaepernick, which we are all aware of, as well as the protests and gestures of Bennett and Jenkins so far this season.
Man, every time the NFL turns around there, it has to be thinking, “Can we just go back to having some football on Sundays?”
The answer is nope. The protest paste is out of the tube, Roger.
This and that
– These pro athletes are just trolling folks with this “Earth is flat” stuff, right? Now Sammy Watkins has joined Team Flat Planet with Kyrie Irving.
– Interesting read here on new Falcons OC Steve Sarkisian discussing his problems with alcohol.
– The call for extended nets is hot on the press again after a 4-year-old girl was hit in the face with a foul ball Wednesday at Yankees Stadium. Here’s more.
– Growing up a Dodgers fan, we can remember a handful of graceful and gracious memories. Watching Steve Garvey’s compact swing. Watching Ron Cey waddle. Watching Fernando look to the Heavens. Watching Steve Sax throwing the ball from second base into the stands. Wait scratch that last one. Also on the list was watching Raul Mondesi throw from right field. What a great arm. We are reminded of that joy reading this sad story that Mondesi was sentenced to eight years in prison for corruption charges after he was found guilty of defrauding his hometown of more than $1.6 million when he was mayor from 2010-16.
Today’s question
Hey, Happy Birthday Stephen King. You are a creepy, 70-year-old dude.
Faith Hill is 50 today.
The Hobbit was published on this day in 1937. Man, those Hobbits have hairy feet.
Also of note Bill Murray is 67 today. Dude has an excellent catalog friends.
If we are going to do a Rushmore, let’s do ol’ Billy Murray’s Rushmore of characters.
Also, remember the mailbag.