NASHVILLE – Democrat Phil Bredesen holds a 10 percentage- point lead over Republican U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn in Tennessee’s U.S. Senate race, according to a just-released Middle Tennessee State University poll.
Forty-five percent of the 600 registered voters said they would vote for Bredesen, a former governor, if the election were held now, while 35 percent backed Blackburn. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Another 17 percent weren’t sure and the rest declined to say.
In the governor’s race, the survey found that, among the four Republicans and two Democrats running, GOP candidates U.S. Rep. Diane Black and businessman and former state economic commissioner Randy Boyd led among voters in terms of positive name identification – 30 percent each. Democrat Karl Dean was close behind with 26 percent viewing him favorably.
Former Gov. Phil Bredesen and U.S. Rep. Marsha Blackburn (Photo: The Tennessean)State House Speaker Beth Harwell, R-Nashville, stood at 23 percent, while Franklin businessman Bill Lee and state House Minority Leader Craig Fitzhugh, D-Ripley, both had 16 percent.
The margin of error effectively puts Black, Boyd, Dean and Harwell in a statistical dead heat. All have to go first through their respective party primaries on Aug. 2. The general election is Nov. 6.
But Black also had the highest negative perceptions with 38 percent, exceeding positive views of her by 8 percentage points. Dean came next with 32 percent, followed by Harwell at 29 percent. Fitzhugh was 28 percent, while Lee was at 24 percent and Boyd at 23 percent.
With regard to the Senate race to succeed the retiring U.S. Sen. Bob Corker, R-Tenn., Ken Blake, director of the MTSU poll, said in a news release that Bredesen “is off to a good start, and Blackburn has some ground to make up. But neither candidate has a majority, and with 17 percent undecided, four months to go until the primary and another three after that until the general [election], this is still either candidate’s race to win – or lose.”
Jason Reineke, associate director of the poll, said Bredesen appears significantly more successful at attracting non-Democratic voters than Blackburn is at attracting non-Republican voters.
“For example, 45 percent of self-described independents said they would vote for Bredesen, while only 33 percent of independents said they would vote for Blackburn,” Reineke said.
Reineke said Bredesen also did better at attracting Republican voters, with 20 percent saying they would vote for Bredesen. Just five percent of Democrats said they would vote for Blackburn.
“Our polling during Bredesen’s time as governor showed him consistently attracting appreciable support among Republicans and independents as well as among his fellow Democrats,” Reineke said. “That record may be paying dividends for him now.”
During a trip to the state Capitol Thursday, Corker told reporters he has “a great deal of respect” for Bredesen and has known “from the very beginning when he began to think about running for Senate that he would be a very serious candidate and he is.”
“Look, there’s a lot of water to go under the bridge between now and the end,” Corker said of the MTSU poll, later adding, “I think it’d be too early to make any prognostications today. But it looks like it’s obviously going to be a very competitive race. I think people have been predicting that from the very beginning.”
MTSU poll chiefs said the only within-party difference the poll could detect was the “significant gap” between Lee’s 28 percent favorability rating among the sample’s 207 self-identified Republicans compared to the 47 percent and 49 percent favorability ratings for Boyd and Black.
Moreover, large segments of the electorate say they neither favor nor oppose the candidates – between 19 and 27 percent – or don’t know how they feel about the candidates – between 13 and 32 percent – indicating voters’ attitudes are still forming.
The poll, meanwhile, found that 50 percent of those surveyed approved of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 41 percent disapprove. Eight percent said they didn’t know, while the remainder declined to answer.
At the same time, only 46 percent think Trump deserves re-election, and 44 percent don’t. Ten percent said they don’t know or gave no answer.
MTSU also found:
- 41 percent approve of Sen. Corker, compared to 45 percent in October
- 39 percent approve of Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-Tenn., compared to 45 percent in October
- 58 percent approve of Republican Gov. Bill Haslam, compared to 56 percent in October
- 47 percent approve of the Tennessee Legislature, compared to 48 percent in October
- 14 percent approve of the U.S. Congress, compared to 13 percent in October.
Contact Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-255-0550.