Fab 4 picks (plus quite a few)
We’re back. And we a year (or maybe more) from not having to say ‘for entertainment purposes only” considering that legalized sports betting is coming at some point to a state near all of us.
We started fast last week with a 4-1 showing in week one. We’ll take 4-1 every week and start putting away coin for 5-at-10 tots’ college funds.
The first two weeks of the college season can be a little more logic-based. That’s a good thing.
Vegas over-shades teams with bigger names than talent edges (Hi, Notre Dame). That’s important to know.
Trends are more pertinent because we are relying more on preseason belief rather than regular season visuals.
We give up a lot of points in some games and walk with some heavy underdogs in September. Hopefully we’ll explain those as we go.
There are a couple of games on this list that will make you think, “What is that fat-headed blow-hard thinking?” and in truth, well, that’s OK too.
But let’s go, and yes, we liked way too many of these games in an effort to try to get off to a good start.
Alabama minus-24 over Louisville. Let’s check the boxes as we ignore the simple fact that Alabama will be shaded by Vegas every week. (By that we mean that Vegas is going to tilt every line toward the Tide because the public wants to bet on the Tide. That’s important to remember, especially since most of the computer models have Alabama being 16 points better than Louisville and the line is 24.) But, here’s what we know: Alabama has had months to prepare, and we know what Nick Saban does with plenty of prep time. Alabama is better at every position, and at some of those positions, Alabama’s back-ups are better, so when the Tide is laying a big number, Alabama’s 2s are still looking to make a mark. And finally, Alabama has a history of crushing – CRUSHING – non-conference, power 5 foes.
Miami minus-3 over LSU. This game is Sunday, and as we’ll do this a lot this season, buy the half-point. (That means on spread of 3 and 7 and 10 and generally 14, we buy the half to get it down to Miami minus-2.5 so a field goal wins.) Miami is comfortable with its coach, its quarterback and its playmakers. LSU is comfortable with two defensive All-Americans. The difference? One side has Ed Orgeron making key decisions and Steve Ensminger calling plays. This is not the last time you regulars will see this: The Fab 4 is picking against LSU and Coach O as much as we are picking for their opponent. (Another familiar refrain: Identifying regular losers is every bit as good as picking regular winners. Think about that.)
Oklahoma-FAU over 66. Kyler Murray is going to put up eye-popping numbers in Lincoln Riley’s offensive. In fact, there may not be a more quarterback-friendly scheme in all of football (college and pro) than what Riley and the Sooners are rolling out every week. (Side note: I pledge this football season to avoid the following cliches because they bug me: “The quarterback position,” because well, is there a “quarterback transition” or a “quarterback something else” that we should be talking about. “Video-game numbers” because it has become too easy, too trite and too tired. Pushing someone under the bus for similar reasons as we normally use pushing people into traffic. “Arm talent” because it simply sounds so pompous that someone like V. Worthington Thomassire the VIII would say it. Deal? Deal.) Anyhoo, we think Murray’s arm talent from the quarterback position will allow the Sooners to register video-game numbers before Lane Kiffin pushes his DC under the bus.
UNLV plus-28 at USC. What? Greeson laying monster numbers for overmatched foes. Yes, yes we are and here’s why: USC has a monster, season-changing game next week at Stanford. USC will not show anything beyond the very vanilla. The No. 1 goal is to get a win, and the next goal is to get out of this one healthy. Getting four touchdowns in games like this are too much to pass up. And now for the stat that matters in today’s part of the show: UNLV as a 21-plus-point underdog under its current staff is 6-1 against the number. Hmmmmmmmmm.
The Ohio State minus-38 over The Oregon State. Now the reverse of the previous thought. In a matchup of THE OSUs, one team has an over/under win/total is 2.5; the other is win-it-all or bust. You know which is which, and when the score streams across the bottom The Ohio State 70, The Oregon State 14, you’ll think to yourself, wow, 38 points were not really that many after all. (And don’t you know how much the Buckeyes want to go do something other than a) talk about scandal and b) hit someone else.)
Nebraska minus-21 vs. Akron. There will be no more energy on a field in the country Saturday than when favorite son Scott Frost takes the field at Nebraska. His offense is tried and true. He has a quarterback. He has reason to show the Cornhuskers faithful that they have reason to believe. Sorry, Terry Bowden and the Zips, but Nebraska is dropping 50-plus on Saturday.
West Virginia minus-9.5 over Tennessee. I want UT to win this game. I want the quarterbacks to play well, the pass rush to get to Will Grier, the secondary to cover David Sills, Ty Chandler to find monster running lanes and Trey Smith to dominate. But wants and beliefs are not the same thing when it comes to picking entertainment, and other than the last one (Trey Smith is going to dominate a lot of folks friends) we range from knowing those will not happen to not knowing anything. We think Tennessee will be better this year because they will be better coached, but they are not close to as talented as the Mountaineers.
Last regular season against the spread: 50-30-1 (62.5 percent)
Last bowl season against the spread: 18-17 (51.4 percent)
All-time (since star of the 2011 season) against the spread: 404-256-5 (61.2 percent).
Georgia senior inside linebacker Natrez Patrick (6) has experienced plenty of highs and lows during his career with the Bulldogs. (John Paul Van Wert/Georgia photo)Saturday items of interest
Our man David Paschall handles the SEC coverage for the TFP and TFP readers everywhere are better off for it. With that in mind, we are going to space out the SEC items of the interest in this space to things all across college football because, well, we can. Giddy-up.
1. Who is the least overrated coach in the country? Great question right? Well, we will get a jumpstart toward the answer Saturday night/Sunday morning when we get the results from South Bend after the Irish and Michigan Wolverines face off. We like the Fightin’ Harbaughs in this one because their best (defensive front seven) is better than any group the Irish have, especially since Notre Dame is replacing two offensive linemen who were picked in the top 10 in April. Each of these teams is in the top-15 and each has a fan base expecting title contention. The loser come Sunday morning will be asking whether it’s time to turn the page. Side note: Brian Kelly is 48-33 at Notre Dame (yes that vacates the 12-1 run in 2012, but still; Jim Harbaugh is 28-11 in three seasons at Michigan.
2. Auburn-Washington, loser is out. Yep, that’s where we are in the race for college football playoff spots. We have an elimination game in week one. (And that’s why we should never, ever expand the playoffs, alas.) OK, if Auburn loses Saturday and runs the table, it is back in, but that would mean road wins at Georgia and Alabama. (Not happening.) For Washington in particular and the Pac-12 in general, this game has monster meaning. We thinK Washington is the more complete team and we almost listed this among our picks, but here’s wondering if Washington can consistently block Auburn’s front seven.
3. Let’s go Peay. No we are not rooting for Georgia to lose to Austin Peay, because let’s face it, that’s rooting for the sun not to rise in the East. But we can still root for the devilishly handsome friend-of-the-show Will Healy to keep it close and make the UGA folks sweat a little, right?
4. Let’s stay local. We’re on Team Arth. We’re planning on swinging by Finley tonight. This one should be relatively easy, right? But here’s hoping for an entertaining swing for the Mocs and an offense that will assuredly be more athletic and more physical up front.
The accusations against Ohio State University receivers coach Zach Smith took a bizarre turn late last week.Just shut up
OK, we’re running out of time and space. (Yes, the interweb is limitless, but man, this feels like we’ve been writing since Tuesday.)
Anyhoo, two quick college football topics because, well, you know.
First, Zach Smith needs to sit down, shut up, log off and get help.
Dude’s Twitter rants on Wednesday helped nothing and the fact that he used pictures of his kids as a shield for his flaws, crimes and sins, well, that speaks volumes. About Zach Smith.
And about Urban Liar. How did everyone – EVERYONE – not see the lunatic fringe on which Smith was balancing. Buckets.
OK, on a more happy college football note (and we have some college football questions in Friday’s ‘bag) let’s cover these three things:
Auburn will frustrate the bee’s wax out of yours truly. They will win a game in impressive style that will surprise; they will lose a game that no one expected. Alas. The highs and lows of being an Auburn fan, but what can you do, right? Your team is your team. Period.
This will be the year of the defensive lineman. Be it in Clemson, THE Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama and even Auburn, there are some DUDES playing in the trenches in college football.
Zach Smith is a worthless human being.
That is all. (Until tomorrow that is.)
This and that
– How about that Christian Yelich, huh? If you are saying who, well, that’s OK. Yelich was part of the all-work outfield in Miami that Derek Jeter’s ownership group jettisoned before the season. Yelich went 6-for-6 last night for Milwaukee and hit for the cycle. (And yes, going from Miami to Milwaukee in terms of baseball spotlight landing places is like going from being an extra in an off-off-off-off-off Broadway play to being Scar for the Topeka Playhouse Players.) Yelich is hitting .319 with 28 homers and 75 RBIs and 14 steals. Dude is right there with Matt Carpenter atop the NL MVP race. As for the Marlins former outfielders, well, Yelich, Giancarlo Stanton (.275, 32 HRs, 82 RBIs) and Dee Gordon (.274, 2 HRs, 25 RBIs, 29 SBs) are doing fairly well in their new homes.
– Green Bay gave Aaron Rodgers a monster new contract. The numbers seem Monopoly-esque: nine-figures guaranteed, up to $180 million including incentives, $80 million up front between now and St. Patrick’s Day. You get the idea. Well, on its face, Rodgers’ contract is right there with Saban’s contract. Each is so good at their gig that there is no way they can actually be overpaid. NFL owners, players and fans would be well served if all sides sit down at the next collective bargaining agreement and figure out a way to implement a “Larry Bird Extension” or something like it for teams and players. The “Bird Extension” is the NBA loophole that allows a player’s current team to offer more money to said player with less cap hit. That’s a win-win-win.
– Speaking of Rodgers, loved this stat from ESPN Stats and Info: “Aaron Rodgers is 1 of 4 quarterbacks to throw 40 Pass TD in multiple seasons He’s 1 of 9 players to win multiple MVP awards He currently owns the highest TD-Int ratio in NFL history (4.0). He could throw an interception on his next 24 attempts and still have the highest.”
– Call it the “Hard Knocks” effect if you need to, but did you see some of the gambling numbers for the Cleveland Browns? The Browns’ over/under win total was 6. They went 0-16 last year. The odds for the Browns to win the AFC North are 10-to-1. Again, they went 0-and-bleepin’-16 last year.
– Here’s today’s Greeson A2 column on ol’ Fort Finley. Discuss.
Today’s questions
College football is here. Yippie.
Today’s Frankenstein Day. And Slinky Day. And Toasted Marshmallow Day. Not a fan of the marshmallow.
On this day in 1146, European leaders outlaw the crossbow with the intention of ending war for ever. In retrospect that goal was not met.
On this day Tom Brokaw became the news anchor of the “Today Show.”
Ted Williams would have been 100 today. What a ball-player. Chuck Bronson died on this day in 2003. Bronson was a bad man.
Let’s stay on our college football kickoff Rushmore: Rushmore best single season for a player in college football history. Go, and remember the mailbag.