Fab 4 picks
OK, we do not have a trendy jingle spin off this morning.
We hop to have winners. Lots and lots of winners.
We are going from today – hello Marshall – through next Wednesday night. Deal? Deal. (Reminder: The Bowling for Bowls of Bowl Game Success ((Bowler Optional)) standings will be in Friday’s edition of the 5-at-10.)
And this round of picks starts the wave of players in the game or not. That information is must have.
For instance, Darrell Henderson, the excellent Memphis running back, has decided to skip the bowl game. So has Houston star defensive lineman Ed Oliver. There are several more. Here’s a starting point for some of the bigger names turning their attention to the NFL draft process rather than the college postseason pomp and circumstance, including South Carolina receiver Deebo Samuel. https://247sports.com/LongFormArticle/College-football-bowl-season-players-skipping-NFL-Draft-Michigan-Wolverines-125855307/
FIU plus-5 over Toledo. This one is tomorrow around lunch in the Bahamas. Lunch in the Bahamas sounds nice. (“That’s the soup of the day.” “Hmmmmm, that sounds good. I’ll have that.”) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrdBGGy7syE OK, FIU simply has more speed in almost every phase, especially across the defensive front. In fact, we like this play on a lot of levels. We do not like the news that Desmond Howard will be doing the analysis. Winning picks = entertainment; Howard behind the mic = opposite of entertainment.
Army minus-4.5 over Houston. OK, Houston’s two best defensive players are taking this one off – Oliver and corner Isaiah Johnson. Houston’s offense is spread-based but has been forced to turn to a thrower after injury to its dual-threat QB star. And if there’s one team that’s going to show up this bowl season motivated, you have to trust Army more than any other, right? Right?
Boston College plus-3 over Boise State. No team needed the rest more than the Eagles, who figure to have a healthy A.J. Dillion, who rushed for more than 1,100 yards despite missing two full games with a slew of aches and pains, and quarterback Anthony Brown. We’ll buy the half here, but here’s another little sneaky edge: BC coach Steve Addazio, who got a two-year extension, is trying for his first eight-win season with the Eagles. His team is 7-5 and has finished 7-6 in four of his previous five years.
California over TCU pick ’em. TCU had a tough time scoring points in the pinball league that is the Pac-12. Now they face a legitimately salty defense that figures to be jacked up after head coach and defensive guru Justin Wilcox agreed to an extension with the Bears.
Troy-Buffalo over 49. Speed friends. Speed. That and the perpetual struggles of the MAC. Now add in the fact that Buffalo gave away its conference title. We like Troy as a side, but we’ll take over seven TDs in this one. (Side note: The weather in Montgomery Saturday is supposed to be perfect.)
Hawaii-La Tech over 60. Kind of like the Techsters here, too, but that 10:30 p.m. Eastern kick is always a touch scary. The proper play is the over 60 as this game will be played in the 30s by both teams. Want to know how many of Hawaii’s 13 foes scored fewer than 28 points? Two. Yes, two. And one of those were the mighty Dukes of Duquesne.
Regular season: 53-38-2
Bowl season: 2-1-1
(Other bowl picks mentioned in other places: 2-2 – lost Northern Illinois and the over last night; won Tulane and Ohio. We’ll add the rest of our non-Fab 4 picks around lunch.)
NFL picks
We are in the penultimate week of the NFL season.
(Yes, Chas, I try to find as many times as possible to use ‘penultimate.’ Sue me.)
It also is the week that most fantasy football seasons have their Super Bowl.
So if you are still playing, good luck. Couple of final tips.
Don’t over think it. Yes, there are some difficult match-ups for some of the best teams in the league. Kansas City going to Seattle could be tough at night Sunday, but do not overreach your team and try to find the diamond instead of Tyrek Hill.
Play a slew of Cowboys. The Bucs defense is dreadful – especially against the pass, considering Tampa’s passer efficiency against is north of 111 – and Dallas is a desperate football team. (Spoiler alert.)
Mind the weather. Seriously, there could be some really nasty spots. Take Cleveland for instance. High of 39. Low in the 20s and a 50-plus percent chance of rain. Just be mindful.
Either way, good luck. To the picks.
Tennessee minus-10 over Washington. Titans are 5-1 at home. Tennessee is really good at punishing bad QB play. Both apply against the visiting Redskins, as well as the simple fact the Titans have to win to stay alive. What does Josh Johnson – a guy who got his first win as a starting QB last week against the Jacksonville Quitters – bring? Well, he’s got to be considered rested since the last two weeks have been his first NFL action since 2014 and his first pass thrown since 2011. And what does Johnson – who has completed 56.4 percent of his career throws with seven TDs and 11 picks – face in Nashville? A sneaky strong defense that is top five in the league in third-down percentage against (35 percent) and first downs allowed (18.4) as well as tied for first in the league in points allowed (18.1). Good luck Josh. Yes, 10 points is a bunch and normally we avoid double-digit NFL favorites like Nixon avoided the truth and Clinton avoided salads, but this one screams 27-3.
Houston plus-2.5 over Philly. The sentiment of Philly! Philly! and the return of Nick Foles and all of that late-season magic for the Eagles is fun. It also masks the fact that the wrong team is favored here. Plus, the Texans have a lot to play for as well. With New England scuffling, the Texans are currently the 2 seed in the AFC, which is a monster deal for the NFL’s hottest team over the last two months. We’ll buy this up to an even 3 for a little insurance. (Side question: In the world of insurance commercials, if the All-State Mayhem campaign is Alabama, would it be fair to say the potpourri that is Geico is Georgia and that stupid Flo woman and her cohorts from Progressive are Prairie View back in the day when Prairie View lost a million in a row.)
Dallas minus-7 over Tampa Bay. Buy the half here and weigh the needs and wants. Sure Tampa Bay and its players want to play well. It’s always a national audience when the Cowboys are involved. Dallas finds itself in a tighter NFC East race after last week’s stinker in Indy. And let’s not forget that Tampa defensively is Great Googily Moogily bad, allowing moe than 386 yards and almost 29 points per.
Atlanta minus-2.5 over Carolina. Call this one the CoachingJobs.com Bowl. Carolina’s Ron Rivera is sitting on a steaming seat after turning a 6-2 Super Bowl contender into a 6-8 also-ran that is putting its QB on the shelf and using its running back at an alarming rate. (Did you see the stat that Christian McCaffrey has been on the field for every offensive play for the last six weeks and has played 97 percent of the plays this year? That’s a staggering usage rate for an RB friends.) As for the Falcons, reports have the OC and the DC on the way out. And while that may be a distraction, it also means two final weeks for those coordinators to put some ball plays on tape. This line has already moved like 6 points with the news that Cam Newton is out. Plus, we like the Falcons to win out because, hey, they are the Falcons, and we know that Dan Quinn will try to spin a 7-9 mark – and a much worse draft pick – on the injuries. Falcons Football Livin’ it.
This season: 5-3 against the number.
Speaking of the NFL
Does any player have more actually invested in his team making the NFL playoffs than Baltimore safety Eric Weddle?
According to this, if the Ravens make the playoffs and Weddle gets selected to the Pro Bowl, it triggers a $1 million bonus. Weddle was picked for the Pro Bowl. So, if the Ravens can find the postseason, Weddle cashes a seven-figure check.
Here is a list of several players and their possible bonuses on the line with two weeks left in the season. https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-a-look-at-2018-performance-bonuses-for-tom-brady-eric-weddle-and-other-noteworthy-nfl-players/
This and that
– Sloppy road loss for Bruce Pearl’s top-10 ranked Auburn Tigers at N.C. State last night. Nasty in fact. The 78-71 final – which was actually worse than the final number in Auburn’s loss to Duke last month – included Auburn shooting 20 percent from distance (5-of-25) and 50 percent from the foul line (6-of-12). Add in 25 turnovers and those numbers will get you beat at Savannah State never mind playing at a soon-to-be-ranked 10-1 N.C. State.
– The Wolfpack – can anyone say Wolfpack and not think of Allan’s speech on top of Caesar’s in “The Hangover” of course not – victory was part of a 3-0 night for the ACC over the SEC as Georgia Tech won at Arkansas and Virginia smoked South Carolina.
– In a fit made in Hollywood Heaven, Patrick Mahomes is the new pitch man for Hunt’s Ketchup. Mahomes, of course, gave an interview earlier this season in which he professed his love for ketchup, including putting it on mac-and-cheese. To each his own.
– As for tonight’s bowl game, USF is done. After starting 7-0, the Bulls are about to finish on a six-game losing streak and Marshall will cover the 4. We also like the over 50 or so tonight too.
Today’s questions
Which bowl game – non-playoff – are you most looking forward to, other than your team of course?
As for today, well, on this day, dec. 20, It’s a Wonderful Life premiered in New York City. Merry Christmas Bedford Falls.
Elvis received his draft notice on this day in 1957.
It’s national refitting day. Refitting, friend or foe.
It also is National Dot Your I’s Day.
Rushmore of Dad Cliches like Dot your I’s and cross your T’s. Go, and remember the mailbag.