Will the new coronavirus now ravaging China ever go away? Or is it here to stay, causing ongoing misery?
The answer depends on two possible outcomes: China, the epicenter of the outbreak, gets the virus under control — or it doesn’t, and permanent new epicenters of infection spring up in poorer, more desperate nations.
Time is of the essence, according to leading infectious disease experts. Since the virus was first identified in December, the number of casualties in China has skyrocketed, with more than 37,000 cases and 800 deaths, surpassing SARS fatalities in 2003, according to Chinese health officials. While the rest of the globe has effectively isolated the world’s most populous nation, such extreme measures can’t go on forever.
Then this coronavirus could join the many other viruses, such as chickenpox, the flu and common cold, which forever circulate the globe, seasonally waxing and waning — until medicines or vaccines save the day.
“Once you get critical mass, it is very hard for tried and true public health approaches to make an impact,” said Dr. Robert R. Redfield, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.