It never fails. We spend an offseason and all of spring training analyzing a team’s strengths and weaknesses, and then the for-real games begin and it turns out we’ve gotten much, if not everything, wrong. We say again: Baseball is weird. As a case study, we offer the 2021 Atlanta Braves.
1. We figured these Braves would hit. One weekend into the season, they were last in the majors in OPS. Two weeks later, they’re fourth in OPS and runs, first in homers. They’re not hitting for average – the collective number is .235, 14th-best among 30 clubs – but this is the 21st Century, which means nobody who’s anybody cares about batting average.
2. It’s a good thing nobody cares about batting average; otherwise we’d be a bit concerned. Ronald Acuna leads the National League in Triple Crown numbers: He’s hitting .417 with seven homers and 16 RBIs. Only one other everyday Brave has as many as 10 RBIs, and that’s Freddie Freeman. Among the usual starting eight, only Acuna is hitting – pause for effect – above .232. The NL average is .233.
3. Marcell Ozuna hit .338 over the truncated 2020 season; he’s at .232 now. He struck out 60 times over 60 games last season; he has struck out 22 times in 16 games in 2021. Dansby Swanson’s OPS last season was .809; this year it’s .621. Ozzie Albies’ career batting average is .275; he’s hitting .157.
4. So: They’ve started to score, but they’re a long way from peak offensive capacity. If you believe in the law of averages, this is a good sign. With only Acuna holding up his end, they’re 7-9. They’re within 2 1/2 games of the division-leading Mets. They haven’t allowed themselves to be buried.