Is Cuba on the edge of a tectonic shift from Castroite communism to Western-style democracy? Until very recently, it would have seemed unthinkable. But when “Patria y Vida,” a music video sharply criticizing the situation in Cuba, becomes the anthem of massive street demonstrations, the impossible starts to sound possible.
Indeed, the demonstrations in Havana and dozens of other cities and the widespread popularity of “Patria y Vida” (“Homeland and Life”) suggest strongly that the Cuban people are fed up with the false promises of communism and are ready for a fundamental change in their politics and lives.
But are all the conditions present for such a dramatic change? One way of determining that is to compare Cuba with East Germany in January 1989 when the communist boss Erich Honecker boasted that the Berlin Wall would stand for another 100 years. In November of that same year, the Wall came tumbling down, and East Germans welcomed a new era of political and economic freedom.
East Germany was ready for a revolution because:
* It had suffered decades of economic decline and deprivation.