Last year made it feel as if the U.S. was a nation in steep decline. And in some worrying ways it is. But looking back on 2020, and looking ahead to 2021, there are signs that the country has robust reservoirs of strength and effectiveness that will cause it to outperform the gloomiest expectations. It may not be morning in America yet, but it’s past midnight.
The clearest example is the vaccination race. Despite problems with the initial rollout, the U.S. public health system has now found its feet and is putting about 1.2 million shots into arms per day – not far short of President Joe Biden’s target of 1.5 million. Around the world, only a few countries have administered shots to more of their population than the U.S. has – and of those, all except the U.K. are very small.
Notably, China is lagging far behind the U.S. in the vaccination drive despite getting a considerable head start on development. The country’s vaccines, which used an older technology than the U.S. shots and may have been subject to less reliable trials, have unclear efficacy.
In economic terms, the U.S. has taken a big hit from COVID-19, including a recent downturn from the big winter wave. But whereas the American economy was lagging other rich nations as of summer 2020, it’s now recovered to an average performance:
U.S. manufacturing has already started bouncing back, with strong growth in late 2020. If the U.S. continues to win the vaccine race, it could do even better, since fear of the virus is what hurts economies.