The human loss from the coronavirus will not be reflected in the 2020 census because of a matter of timing, which could save a congressional seat for New York but cost Alabama one.
Because the start of the pandemic in the U.S. and the April 1 reference date used for the census fell so close to each other last year, the deaths that began in mid-March will not show up in the state population figures that determine political representation in Congress.
The timing will paper over the losses from the virus, which has killed around 44,000 people in New York state, including concentrations in some New York City neighborhoods in Brooklyn, Queens and the Bronx. Alabama has reported around 8,000 virus-related deaths.
New York still is projected to lose at least one seat, but the quirk in the calendar should ensure that the state gets the last of the 435 congressional seats by a margin of more than 20,000 people, and that would save it from losing a second congressional seat, said Kimball Brace, a redistricting expert at Election Data Services.
“When you get to that last seat or two, any little change could have an impact,” Brace said.