NFL power poll
David Purdum writes about gambling for ESPN. On Mondays he recaps the betting weekend.
This week, Purdum quoted a veteran sportsbook VP who said, “I don’t recall three weeks quite like this in my 25 years in the industry.”
Three straight weeks of the betting public beating the books is as much of an outlier as you can imagine. Moreso even.
Purdum reviewed the Nevada Gaming records and in the long history of betting in Sin City, there have been a total of 11 months – ever – that Vegas has lost money on football. Eleven, and the last time it happened was November 2011. Wow.
What’s different this time around? Lots of things in varying degrees, if I had to guess.
First, the Packers and the Cowboys are rolling, and they are two of the most popular betting sides in all of sports.
Second, the divide between good and bad teams has never been as telling, especially between really good and really, really bad teams.
The Packers crushed a bad Washington that is without a semblance of viable QB play and the Patriots bombed the Jets on Sunday.
Finally, the favorites – especially the heavy favorites are cruising. No NFL underdog of seven or more points has won outright this season. Sure some have covered but, if you play the money line on the teams favored by more than a TD, you’ve been perfect this season.
Like Admiral Byrd, let’s head to the poll.
1. Arizona. The Cardinals were picked to finish last in the NFC West, and were plus-575 to win the division. But here they stand, the last unbeaten team in the NFL. That would be good for a two-game lead in any AFC division or the race on that side for home field. But not the loaded NFC, which has all of the top five in this week’s poll.
2. Tampa Bay. The Bucs keep rolling, and Tom Brady keeps defying time and age. If his perimeter teammates stay healthy, and Brady keeps playing like he’s 34 rather than 44, the Bucs are going to be an extremely tough out come January.
3. Green Bay. The NFC with the most to gain by grabbing home-field advantage, the Packers have won six straight. If you had a vote right now, is Aaron Rodgers the MVP? And while we’re here, how great is this week’s Thursday night game between Packers and Cardinals?
4. Los Angeles. Man, Sunday’s win over his former team had to be sweet for Matt Stafford. The Rams outclassed the Lions in an 11-0 fourth quarter, allowing Stafford to smile and Rams fans to feel fortunate that Jared Goff’s monster contract is someone else’s issue now.
5. Dallas. Do I think the Titans and the Bills from the AFC are good? Sure I do. But let’s tip the visor to the Cowboys, who are not only perfect against the spread, they are scoring in bunches.
Powerless
28. Miami. Man, a trendy pick to make some AFC noise before the season, the Dolphins are swimming belly-up these days. Miami is 1-6 with a scoring margin of minus-80 and more than a few questions about whether they have the right coach and the right quarterback moving forward.
29. Jacksonville. Yawn. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy than Urban.
30. New York Jets. When the season ends, how are we going to be able to explain Jets 27, Titans 24 in Week 4? I’ll wait.
31. Houston. So, simply asked, would you want your team to trade for Deshaun Watson? Not only from an ethical angle but also from a practical one, considering the slew of draft picks it would take. Discuss.
32. Detroit. Wonder what Goff thinks about his future. And, while we’re here, these teams swirling near the bottom of the NFL bowl that need QBs have to be wondering who across the country will be this year’s top option.
World Serious
So the Braves are here. It’s real and I couldn’t be happier for my buddies who have ached and ailed with the Braves roller coaster over the last three decades.
Sure, most of the last 30 years have been successful, but the shortcomings have been painful.
Now the Braves get a chance to do the Lord’s work and beat the Houston Cheaters, strike that Astros.
Side note: For those of us a certain age, imagining the Braves (picture Dale Murphy and those powder blues) and Astros (picture Jose Cruz in those multiple orange hues) from the cellar of the old-school 1980s NL West races in the World Series is almost comical.
Also, while we’re here, each of these franchises was a central part of two of the worst baseball movies ever made. The Braves featured Danny Noonan playing the slugger in “The Slugger’s Wife” and the Astros – remember Enos Cabell and Bob Watson in the dugout chanting “Let them play” – hosted “The Bad News Bears” in their rotten sequel.
As for this series, well, we’re all rooting for the Braves of course, but can they win?
You bet your Bob Horner rookie cards they can.
The Astros’ rotation is gutted without ace Lance McCullers. Yes the Houston lineup is loaded and complete – and they are really, Really, REALLY good at guessing at which pitches are coming – but so is Atlanta’s.
Maybe I’m a homer, but give me the Braves in 5.