CHARLOTTE, N.C. — Oddsmakers have listed Chase Elliott as this year's favorite to win NASCAR's Cup Series championship, and statistics paint the same picture.
The 26-year-old Hendrick Motorsports driver from Dawsonville, Georgia, leads the top-tier circuit with four victories, won the regular-season title and enters the playoffs with a 15-point cushion in the standings.
Elliott doesn't put too much faith into the numbers game, though. If there truly is a favorite in this 16-driver field, he can't pick one — not even himself.
"I don't really see a favorite. I mean, it seems like some weeks you have some guys who are really strong up there contending for wins, and then other weeks it's a bunch of different guys," said Elliott, who won his first Cup Series title two years ago before teammate Kyle Larson earned the 2021 crown. "To me, I think the narrative of how many winners we have, it's not a fluke. Anything can happen to anyone in the last 10 (races), so I personally don't think there's a favorite."
NASCAR had 16 drivers win at least once during the regular season, including five who made their first career Cup Series visit to victory lane. It led to a dicey regular-season finale this past weekend at Daytona International Speedway, where two spots in the field were open only because injured driver Kurt Busch withdrew his medical waiver because he won't be ready to race when the playoffs open Sunday at Darlington Raceway.
Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr., both winless this season but ranked inside the top five in the points standings, were racing each other to make it into the postseason on points. But then Austin Dillon won the race to fill one of the spots, and Blaney edged out Truex for the final position.
Truex, who advanced to the championship finale in four of the past five years and won it all in 2017, now can't finish higher than 17th in the final standings, a playoff stalwart shut out of title contention. Those racing instead for the championship include first-time playoff participants Ross Chastain and Daniel Suarez — who combined for three regular-season wins for Trackhouse Racing — Chase Briscoe of Stewart-Haas Racing and rookie Austin Cindric, the Daytona 500 winner from Team Penske.
The new crop of young drivers racing for a championship was aided by NASCAR's introduction of the Next Gen car, an industry-wide project to design a spec vehicle that limited costs and leveled the playing field. Some teams caught on quickly with the car, while it took others deep into the season to find a comfort zone.
SHR's Kevin Harvick won back-to-back races in August to snap a 65-race skid and qualify for the playoffs for the 13th consecutive year. But is the 2014 champion a serious contender?
"As we started the year with the new car, we were on the wrong side of the fence and trying to figure everything out," Harvick said. "And as we've gone through the year we've become progressively better, and we figured some things out and got back to victory lane and really have some momentum as we start the process of these last 10 weeks and racing for a championship.
"The biggest thing is we're giving ourselves a chance to race for the championship -- that's the first goal. That looked bleak for a little while, but now we're in a good position to get started."
Four drivers will be eliminated after each of the first three rounds of three races apiece until it's down to four contenders in the season finale Nov. 6 at Phoenix Raceway.
Briscoe pointed out the playoff drivers will have to contend with the entire field during the postseason, which is always true but perhaps more so now because the gap between the top teams and small teams has closed.
"I think the thing people are overlooking with these playoffs is in the past, the playoff guys were so much faster from a speed standpoint that the nonplayoff guys didn't even have a chance to win any of the races or truthfully contend in the top five to 10 sometimes," Briscoe said. "Now there are legitimately seven to eight guys that can still go win races that aren't in the playoffs."
Chastain, meanwhile, has angered much of the field with his aggressive driving. The 29-year-old knows during his breakout season with his first two Cup Series career wins he has made enemies, including Joe Gibbs Racing's Kyle Busch.
As for Busch, the only active driver with multiple championships heads into the playoffs without a contract for next year and with a split from JGR, his home since 2008, a very real probability. He's got no time for Chastain -- it was Busch who turned the rival driver's name into a verb when he said he "got Chastained" after a recent crash -- and suggested many veterans won't give Chastain an inch the next 10 races.
"Absolutely not, no way, no chance," Busch said. "I don't think people are paying him back yet, they're waiting for the right time."
Larson starts the playoffs in a far different position than last season. He was the top seed with five wins a year ago, then won five playoff races to finish off his first title.
Now he's fourth in the standings with only two wins this year — and three engine failures among the six races he has failed to finish.
"I think our regular season didn't go very well, to our standards, but I don't really know if it did for anybody," Larson said. "Even for Chase, like I don't even know if his regular season was up to their standards. There was just a lot of inconsistency this year throughout the regular season."
But Larson has been strong on intermediate speedways, which make up half of the playoff schedule.
"I know we have a championship-caliber team. We proved that last year, and we just have to do it again," Larson said. "Even though I have favorites, I'm not confident in anything, just because of how wild and inconsistent the season has been for so many people. I think you can look at us as being one of the favorites. I think you can look at Chase, obviously, and in my opinion, Ross Chastain."
SWEET 16
The 16 qualifying drivers for this year's NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, with points.
1. Chase Elliott, 2,040.
2. Joey Logano, 2,025.
3. Ross Chastain, 2,020.
4. Kyle Larson, 2,019.
5. William Byron, 2,014.
6. Denny Hamlin, 2,013.
7. Ryan Blaney, 2,013.
8. Tyler Reddick, 2,012.
9. Kevin Harvick, 2,012.
10. Christopher Bell, 2,011.
11. Kyle Busch, 2,010.
12. Chase Briscoe, 2,009.
13. Daniel Suárez, 2,007.
14. Austin Cindric, 2,006.
15. Alex Bowman, 2,006.
16. Austin Dillon, 2,005.
ROAD TO THE TITLE
The 10-race schedule for the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs.
Round of 16
Sept. 4 — Cook Out Southern 500, Darlington, S.C.
Sept. 11 — Hollywood Casino 400, Kansas City, Kan.
Sept. 17 — Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race, Bristol, Tenn.
Round of 12
Sept. 25 — Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 500, Fort Worth, Texas
Oct. 2 — YellaWood 500, Talladega, Ala.
Oct. 9 — Bank of America ROVAL 400, Concord, N.C.
Round of 8
Oct. 16 — South Point 400, Las Vegas
Oct. 23 — Dixie Vodka 400, Homestead, Fla.
Oct. 30 — Xfinity 500, Ridgeway, Va.
Championship 4
Nov. 6 — NASCAR Cup Series Championship, Avondale, Ariz.