Many have tried. Few have succeeded.
But Gene-O Shipley, Stacy Swallows and Justin Holland will try to do what only five candidates have done since Hamilton County moved to the mayor/commission form of government in 1978 – defeat a Hamilton County Commission incumbent in the primary.
It happened once in 1998 and four times in the 2000s.
In the upcoming District 1 Republican primary, Shipley, a former Soddy-Daisy mayor and longtime commissioner, and Swallows, an educator and business owner, have qualified to oppose two-term incumbent Randy Fairbanks. In the District 3 primary, former Chattanooga Public Works administrator Justin Holland will test Commissioner Greg Martin, who won a special election to fill the unexpired term of Marty Haynes in 2016 and won a term on his own right in 2018.
Qualifying for the May 3 primary election closed at noon on Thursday.
Ironically, it was Fairbanks who pulled off one of the five primary wins, surprising three-term incumbent Fred Skillern in 2014.
Indeed, it also was District 1, which covers Sale Creek, Soddy-Daisy and north Hixson, which saw the first of the primary upsets.
In 1998, Republican businessman Jim Vincent knocked off three-term incumbent Ralph Barger, who was a former Red Bank mayor and longtime commissioner. Vincent won by more than 200 votes out of a total of 2,522 cast.
Barger, who died in 2006, attributed his loss to a push to oust him that followed a decision he made on a replacement for then-County Commissioner Rheubin Taylor, who had been appointed Hamilton County attorney (where he still serves today).
Vincent, though, served only two years between the long tenures of Barger and Skillern, stepping down after he was elected a state representative in 2000. He went on to serve four years, 2001-2005, in the legislature from District 31, which then included part of Hamilton County. He failed in a primary attempt to regain the seat in 2008.
Skillern, a Soddy-Daisy businessman, was appointed to take Vincent’s place in early 2001, then ran and won three terms before losing to Fairbanks.
In the 2014 race, Fairbanks emphasized the need for new leadership. Critics had faulted Skillern for his backroom dealings, his lack of visibility at community events and his hoarding of discretionary funds for his district.
Fairbanks won by 51 votes out of a total of 2,480 votes cast.
One of the two primary upsets of a Democratic member came in 2006, when attorney John Allen Brooks knocked off incumbent Lou Miller in District 6, which covers parts of Lookout Valley, South Chattanooga and downtown.
Miller had been appointed to the seat in 2004 following the death of her husband, Ben, who had been on the commission since 1986.
County Democratic Party leaders claimed she had not “stood up for Democratic ideals,” having not voted for a property tax increase the year before to benefit education and having supported a Republican appointee for Sessions Court judge.
Brooks won the race by 305 votes out of 1,179 cast. He served only one term before being defeated by Republican Joe Graham, who served two terms before being ousted in 2018 by Democrat David Sharpe.
Coincidentally, both Brooks and Graham will be back on the May ballot this year, Brooks making a run for county district attorney and Graham for the new District 10 seat created by redistricting.
The fourth of the primary upsets came in 2010, when attorney Jim Fields ousted three-term incumbent Richard Casavant in District 2, which covers Signal Mountain and part of Red Bank.
Casavant, who died in 2020, admitted during the campaign the primary issue was taxes. He had voted for property tax rises three times, some of which would have gone to support schools. Fields said tax hikes should be a last resort, and he also supported (and Casavant opposed) a proposal that would have allowed some seniors who owned their homes to be free from property tax increases.
Fields won the race by 212 votes out of 2,317 cast and served two terms before retiring.
The second Democratic upset came in 2018, when Katherlyn Geter knocked off three-term incumbent Greg Beck by 15 votes in District 5, which covers parts of Brainerd, Tyner and Highway 58. Beck had been appointed to the commission in 2005 after then-Commissioner JoAnne Favors was elected to the Tennessee House.
Geter campaigned on being more accessible to constituents and said the district, in general, needed a change. Geter chose not to run for a second term, and now Beck is seeking his old job again.
The closest near miss came in 1982, when District 6 Commissioner Bob Long hung onto his seat by five votes – against former East Ridge Commissioner Bill Haisten – in the Democratic primary.
The fact there have been only five primary upsets out of a potential of 90 races since 1982 (the first year when commissioners could be re-elected) shows the power of incumbency. Not only is the individual in office literally before the public every week, but his or her vote can affect improvements for the district. And being the face of the district usually helps draw campaign dollars at election time.
Shipley, Swallows and Holland, then, have an uphill battle before them. Time will tell if they score one of the rare county primary upsets.