Twenty-four days still remain for candidates to qualify for the state primary election in August and general election in September, but as of late last week the only people who had picked up qualifying petitions for state Senate and House seats in Hamilton County were the incumbents.
With the resignation of 26th District state Rep. Robin Smith, R-HIxson, last week, we know that will change. But up to now, the interest in the seats of Republican state Sen. Bo Watson, Republican state Reps. Smith, Patsy Hazlewood, Greg Vital and Esther Helton, and Democratic state Rep. Yusuf Hakeem has been nil.
Just as Democrats ruled over Tennessee as a largely one-party state for most of the 20th century, the state and the county in the last decade have been mainly in Republican hands.
With the exception of state Sen. Todd Gardenhire’s relatively close races in 2012, 2016 and 2020, state Senate and House Republicans in the county haven’t had a competitive general election contest for the last decade. And Democrats haven’t had a problem hanging on to their 28th District seat in the state House.
Gardenhire won his races by more than 9% of the total vote (2012), more than 11% (2016) and more than 7% (2020), though the results were closer in Hamilton County alone.
The closest general election House race in the Hamilton County delegation over the last decade came in the open 30th District seat in 2018 when Helton knocked off Joda Thongnopnua, now chief of staff for Chattanooga Mayor Tim Kelly, by more than 16% of the vote.
Meanwhile, the 28th District seat has been comfortably won by Democrats each election, first by Jo Anne Favors and then Hakeem. Republicans ran candidates against them only twice, both times when the seat was open. The most they garnered was 19% of the vote in 2018.
In the last 30 years, no state legislative election has gone by without at least one race among the members of the Hamilton County delegation being contested.
The least contested election over those decades was 2014 when only one race was opposed, the 27th District seat in which Hazlewood won the first of her current four terms. And that was an open race, the previous representative, Richard Floyd, having retired.
If Smith’s 26th District seat becomes the only one contested in this election, it would tie 2014 for the fewest contested races over that span.
The Hamilton County House legislative districts didn’t shift all that much with this year’s redistricting following the 2020 census, but it’s not going to get easier anytime soon for Democrats.
Because most of Hamilton County’s growth is in its largely Republican eastern sector, the House seat encompassing most of that area – District 29, represented by Vital – had to shrink slightly.
What changed geographically was the portion of his district across the Tennessee River in northern Hamilton County. It’s now in the 26th District, which was represented by Smith.
Both districts, though, are reliably Republican, so the face of the delegation is unlikely to change.
The other districts changed little with redistricting, with Helton’s District 30, which stretches from Collegedale to Rossville along the southern border of the county, perhaps picking up a few more Democratic votes on the western side of Missionary Ridge.
Nevertheless, Democrats have been beating the bushes for candidates to run against Republican members of the county delegation.
Indeed, with Smith’s resignation, the latest tweet on the party’s county website said: “Actively looking for Democratic candidates to run for TN State House Dt. 26!”
And the party hopes to rally its faithful in a Blue Wave Dinner on March 19 featuring remarks by U.S. Rep. Lucy McBath, D-Georgia, a two-term U.S. House member who is switching congressional districts this year in an effort to retain her seat, and this newspaper’s liberal cartoonist, Clay Bennett.
However, Smith’s district has been reliably Republican for decades, and the Republican majority Hamilton County Commission will appoint a replacement for her by the end of the month. And that replacement can run for the seat in the fall if they qualify by April 7. As noted above with Districts 27, 28 and 30, though, the best time for an opposing party to contest a seat is when it is open.
Since Smith had picked up papers to qualify, no one was actively looking at opposing her in the August primary, and little noise had been made about opposing her in November.
That will probably change, as the Democratic Party’s tweet suggested. But, even with a contested race in that district, and little interest – so far – in challenges for the other legislators, it’s not likely the balance of power will change in the delegation after November.