Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been immensely expensive, and not only because of global sanctions and lost military equipment. In fact, the highest price Russia is paying in this war has to do with an increasingly scarce resource: lives. Estimates of Russian casualties in just the first week of the war ranged from 2,000 to 6,000, with thousands more lost since then. Every life lost is tragic, but as British journalist Ed West points out, this is a loss modern Russia simply cannot afford.
Russians, like in so many other European nations, simply aren’t having enough babies. The country’s population is shrinking by more than 100,000 people a year, with no clear end in sight. Some parts of the country are simply becoming devoid of people. According to West, about 20,000 Russian villages have been abandoned in recent years, with tens of thousands closely following.
This is a factor that could ultimately affect the outcome of the war, West thinks: “If Russians turn out to have no stomach for this fight, it will probably be for the simple fact that the country does not have enough men to spare. The majority of those poor young men killed for Russia’s honor will be their mother’s only son, in many cases their only child.”
As it turns out, Russia’s problem is not unique. This country, so rich in land but poor in young people, is just one of dozens of nations across an “infertile crescent” from Spain to Singapore, consisting of populations aging so rapidly that their long-term existence is in doubt.
West cites a few examples that bring the stats into perspective: “In 2000 Thailand had 7 workers for every retiree; by 2050 that figure will be just 1.7. In Greece, 1,700 schools closed between 2009-2014.” In Stoke-on-Trent in England, “40% of bars and clubs have shut in the past 20 years, as the ratio of infants to retirees has gone from 4:1 to 1:2 in a century.” And in Paris, “15 schools merged or closed between 2015-2018.”