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Draft time
So the Will Levis movement Tuesday was everything this quarterback carousel needed roughly a day from the start of round 1 of the NFL draft.
I love the draft. You know this.
Levis, as we mentioned in the comments Tuesday afternoon, had his betting odds to be the first pick plummet from plus-1600 (bet $100 to win $1,600) to plus-450 as of this morning.
The odds paint a complicated tapestry of what Vegas thinks will happen and all the talking heads and pundits' predictions of how the draft will play out.
With that, let's run through one fella who loves the draft view of the first half of round 1. Yes, we will attempt the back-half tomorrow.
1. Carolina. Bryce Young goes 1. Even with Levis' insane odds swing, the former Alabama QB is still minus-1000 (bet $1,000 to win $100) to be the first pick tomorrow night. The pick: Young.
2. Houston. Tyree Wilson is now the betting favorite to go 2 overall to Houston. He has lower odds than Levis and half the odds of Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson (plus-130 for Wilson; plus-275 for Anderson). Wilson is a physically imposing pass rusher from Texas Tech.
I like the thought of Houston going elite edge rusher at 2 — either of the two above — but leaving CJ Stroud on the board is a risky proposition. Houston does have the 12 pick too, so you have to ask yourself if you are bound and set on adding a QB1 and one to pressure other QB1s, would you rather have CJ Stroud and potentially Nolan Smith or Wilson or Anderson and holding your breath that Anthony Richardson, Levis or Hendon Hooker is there at 12? The pick: Wilson.
3. Arizona. The Cardinals are desperate to deal. It makes sense. So does taking Wilson or Anderson at 3. The pick: Anderson.
4. Indy. The intrigue that circles this pick is endless. And pushing some of our regular readers into dark places. As details emerge on Levis' meteoric rise Tuesday and Stroud's slide, well, maybe this could shine a little light on some things. So the NFL replaced the Wonderlic test with something that is computer generated and designed to grade a multitude of things, especially how quickly draft prospects process intel and the decisions they make with that information. So, Young got the highest score with a 98%. The other scores for guys who have been mentioned as possible Round 1 guys were Levis' 93%, Richardson's 79%, Hooker's 46% and Stroud's John Blutarsky-like 18%.The pick: Levis.
5. Seattle. First, the Seahawks' phone will be buzzing like Spy at the Savannah St. Patrick's Day parade. And if we get four picks in and only two QBs are gone, the price to acquire Anthony Richardson will be higher than Spicoli before prom. That said, Seattle does the super smart thing and picks arguably the best football player and potential difference-maker in this draft. The pick: Jalen Carter, Georgia.
6. Detroit. Now, the green room would have shots of the waiting QBs. Kiper's hair would be perfect but his volume would be somewhere north of Nova Scotia. McShay would just start pouring dark liquor right into Greenie's mug. It would be anarchy. (Have I mentioned I love the draft recently.) The Lions are a very likely trade option but they also need a CB1 and Illinois stud Devon Witherspoon is exactly that. The pick: Witherspoon.
7. Las Vegas. Another team that has a QB plan but not a QB star, so would Josh McDaniels and Co. pull the trigger on the sliding signal callers? I think no because the Raiders are not going to out-QB division foes K.C. or the L.A. Chargers. So you counter that and boost the NFL's fourth-worst pass defense in 2022 with what some folks believe to be the CB1 with the highest ceiling in this draft. The pick: Christian Gonzalez, Oregon.
8. Atlanta. Sadly, this projection is not ideal for the Falcons. Both top edge rushers are off the board and the draft's top two corners. Could they be tempted by the sliding QBs? Could this be a spot to make a call to Baltimore for Lamar Jackson, who would give the A-T-L a Mike Vick-level injection of buzz, but you know, without all the dog killing and such. As boring as it may sound, Atlanta would be wise to entertain a lot of trade offers if this is anything close to what happens. The Titans at 11 and the Texans who pick 12 would be getting giddy about the QBs available. The pick: CJ Stroud picked by the Titans, who send 11 and other picks to Atlanta to move up three spots.
9. Chicago. So the Bears moved down, added a ton of picks and still could pick Anthony Richardson. Or they could deal with Houston here, too. Chicago stays focused and adds the best offensive lineman in this draft to arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. The pick: Peter Sloronski, Northwestern.
10. Philadelphia. A luxury pick here for sure considering this pick was acquired from New Orleans. And what better luxury than adding Bijan Robinson, who would team with Jalent Hurts, A.J. Brown and DaVonta Smith for quite possibly the best QB1-RB1-WR1-WR2 quartet in the game. The pick: Robinson.
11. Atlanta (from Tennessee). There are tackles on the board in Paris Johnson and Darnell Wright. There are corners on the board too with Joey Porter Jr. and the Banks kid from Maryland. There are edge rushers, too, and I think that is the Falcons' desire, even with all the defensive free agents they added recently. While I think they could be very tempted by Nolan Smith's physical traits, they go bigger. And safer. The pick: Lukas Van Ness, Iowa.
12. Houston. The Texans run to the podium if this is the scenario right? The pick: Richardson.
13. Green Bay. Another perfect fit, the Packers just need to decide which tackle they like the most, Johnson or Walker. The pick: Johnson.
14. New England. The run on O-linemen continue and the Patriots need a keystone left tackle. Who doesn't though, you know? The pick: Broderick Jones, Georgia.
15. New York Jets. Could the Jets add another WR — they could have their pick of the litter in this version — or do they go O-Line and make sure their 38-year-old QB stays upright. I think the latter. The pick: Walker.
16. Washington. Is this where Nolan Smith's slide ends, because the Commanders are about to have a real need at edge rusher considering the unknown future of Chase Young and Monteaz Sweat? The Commanders likely would have selected one of the three tackles that just off the board too. Corner is a need, but this draft is ridiculously good and deep at tight end. And the first one goes to D.C. The pick: Michael Mayer, Notre Dame.
Draft contest
Still taking entries until end of business tomorrow. (That's roughly 5 p.m.)
And yes, that rambling projection above does not jive with all of my picks for the Feeling the Draft While Drinking a Draught contest. So it goes.
We got about 45 entries, so expected a few more. The rules are simple.
And like all contests around these parts, it's free and we'll give away a gift card and maybe some TFP swag if we can put our hands on any.
So, here's the deal. One point for each correct draft pick of the questions below. Who's with me?
— First player drafted?
— Which QB is picked first, Anthony Richardson or Will Levis?
— Who do the Falcons pick first?
— How many QBs go in round 1?
— Which team drafts Bijon Robinson?
— Number of SEC players picked in round 1?
Enjoy and good luck.
NBA playoffs
Three quick takeaways since my draft diatribe got rather lengthy about last night's NBA action.
First, there is no team in sports that I have less of a feel for than the Atlanta Hawks. Truly. When I think they are going to roll over, they show out and vice versa. And the Hawks' leader, Trae Young, has torched me as a sports bettor since Day 1.
Last night he dropped 38 including a game-winning 35-plus-footer in a had-to-have Game 5 in Boston with the team's second-best player in street clothes. Amazing. And completely confounding. It also makes me wonder if Jayson Tatum can be that guy on an NBA champion, because he was not that guy last night.
Second, Nikola Jokic may be the best NBA draft pick ever. Yes, ever. And do not sleep on the home court edge of Denver at that elevation.
Finally, look across the league and how in the name of Blue Horseshoe love Bluestar has Big Blue Nation not won more titles under John Calipari. Devin Booker may be the best offensive player on the planet right now, and that's not even taking into account all the other absolute dudes in this league that played in Lexington.
Thoughts?
This and that
— Braves played. Braves won. So it goes.
— You know the rules. Here's Paschall catching up with South Carolina coach Shane Beamer, who was in town Tuesday for a speaking engagement.
— Speaking of the Hawks, it's become a pretty big gag on social media that the operators of State Farm Arena certainly did not have much faith in these Hawks this postseason. The Janet Jackson concert scheduled for Thursday has been rolled to Friday since the Hawks will need State Farm for, you know, Game 6 on Thursday night.
— This story quoted numbers that had Bud Light sales down 21% the week after the Dylan Mulvaney stuff.
— So did anyone else see the story that went out on the line that Disney World was moving to an Atlanta suburb? Seriously, it was a thing for a hot minute. It was false, however.
Today's questions
Which way Wednesday starts this way:
Which Braves hitter is the most fun to watch, and right about now, there are multiple choices?
Which above NFL draft prediction is the best? Which is the most cracked?
Which team is going to "win" the first round? Which team will lose it?
As for today, April 26, let's review.
On this day in 1941, the first organ at a baseball game was used by the Cubs at Wrigley.
Carol Burnett was born on this day. Lucille Ball died on this day. That's half the all-time female comedy Rushmore, no?
Who bumps either of them off and who gets the final two spots?