Against the odds, the Federal Reserve’s effort to guide the U.S. economy to a soft landing — reducing inflation without causing a recession — seems to be working. Recent data show a still-growing economy, a gently cooling jobs market and a slower pace of price increases in services. Investors are growing more confident that the Fed won’t need to raise its policy rate any higher — and might start cutting in another few months.
President Joe Biden’s administration seems baffled that voters aren’t celebrating this accomplishment. Opinion polls show they’re persistently unhappy with the economy. It shouldn’t be a mystery why.
Given the surge in inflation following the pandemic — the headline rate of consumer-price inflation peaked at more than 9% in June 2022 — a relatively painless return to price stability would in fact be a notable achievement. But both the Fed and the administration should be cautious about celebrating too soon. A soft landing still isn’t guaranteed, and even if it’s accomplished, much of the damage caused by the earlier spike in prices will persist.
Up to now, the Fed has shown that it grasps both these points. After next week’s meeting of the central bank’s policymaking committee, Chair Jerome Powell will doubtless repeat his now-familiar refrain: Demand and supply are coming back into balance, but there’s a ways to go before inflation is securely on track to the committee’s target of 2%. And throughout, the Fed has recognized the pain caused by higher prices, partly to underline its unflinching commitment to meeting its goal.
The Biden administration has been less adept. Officials have been eager to declare victory over inflation for months. They’ve argued that a hot labor market has boosted wages more than prices, leaving workers on average better off, so what’s the problem? Maybe voters don’t understand economics.