The Tennessee Volunteers enter Saturday afternoon's regular-season finale at Auburn needing a win to secure a double bye at next week's Southeastern Conference tournament.
For the Tigers, the stakes are significantly higher.
Auburn has been in the NCAA tournament picture all season, but its 16-3 start has given way to a 3-8 stumble, which has Bruce Pearl's Tigers clinging to one of the final spots on the projected NCAA brackets by both CBS and ESPN. Last year's SEC regular-season champions have dropped five consecutive Saturday games, including single-possession outcomes at West Virginia, Tennessee and Vanderbilt.
The Tigers (19-11, 9-8 SEC) are coming off Wednesday night's 90-85 overtime loss at No. 2 Alabama, a game they led by 17 with 10 minutes remaining in regulation.
"Our guys have been through a lot, and I don't know if I've ever had this many close losses against great teams," Pearl said Wednesday on a postgame Zoom call. "The most important thing is to not lose our confidence."
Saturday's contest tips at 2 on ESPN.
No. 12 Tennessee (22-9, 11-6) is coming off a February in which it went just 4-5, but confidence seems to be restored following consecutive routs of South Carolina, 85-45, and Arkansas, 75-57. If the Vols prevail, they would be no worse than the fourth seed in Nashville and would clinch a spot in next Friday's SEC quarterfinals.
A loss at Auburn and a Missouri win Saturday at home against Ole Miss would result in the Vols having to begin play Thursday, when they would be required to win four games in four days to repeat as league tournament champions.
"I don't think about that other stuff, because that changes from game to game and week to week," Tennessee coach Rick Barnes told reporters Thursday afternoon. "I think it's about the next game, and I appreciate these guys for staying focused on just that. We're finishing the regular season with Auburn, and wherever we land, we'll get ready for the next one."
The Vols will be playing their first game since losing sophomore point guard Zakai Zeigler to a torn anterior cruciate ligament in the first three minutes Tuesday night against the Razorbacks. Senior guard Santiago Vescovi and sophomore guard Jahmai Mashack are expected to shoulder most of the load moving forward, with Barnes expecting Vescovi to get the first crack.
Barnes was asked whether missing out on the double bye would be the worst thing since it would give the Vols an extra game to get used to Zeigler's absence and potentially better prepare for more meaningful tasks ahead. Tennessee is being pegged as an NCAA tournament 3 seed by CBS and ESPN.
"You can look at it any way you want to look at it," Barnes said, "and that's a way you can look at it."
Auburn's biggest challenge will be advancing emotionally from what transpired in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers were 12-of-20 from 3-point range but had their roster depleted when Johni Broome, Jaylin Williams and Allen Flanigan fouled out, and when Dylan Cardwell suffered an ankle injury in overtime.
The 6-foot-11, 256-pound Cardwell is not expected to play against Tennessee, which should give the Vols a notable depth advantage inside.
Zeigler concerns
Given that Zeigler's ACL injury occurred so late this season, Barnes was asked his concern level regarding the 5-9, 171-pounder's availability and effectiveness at the start of next season.
"With all the different guys I've had who have gone through this, they all kind of move at their own pace," Barnes said. "I've had players who felt after six weeks that they could play. They're doing the rehab right now to get him ready for surgery, and he's going to work at it as hard as anybody could possibly work at it."
Feeling old yet?
Vols five-star freshman forward Julian Phillips has reached his first March as a college player.
"It's super exciting," he said. "I remember watching all the March games in class when I was younger, so it's going to be really exciting to play and to see the atmospheres."
When asked to recall his first NCAA tournament memory, Phillips said, "When the guy from Villanova hit the game-winner."
The Kris Jenkins 3-pointer that beat North Carolina for the national championship transpired in 2016.
Odds and ends
Tennessee leads its series with the Tigers 80-44 but is 23-30 in Auburn with three straight losses. ... Vols senior forward and former Hamilton Heights standout Uros Plavsic is 13-of-14 from the floor (92.9%) in his past six games. ... Tennessee is 75-of-114 from the free-throw line in its past six contests (65.8%). ... The Vols are allowing 56.7 points per game, which is on pace to finish third in program history behind the 1966-67 (54.0) and the 1964-65 (55.6) teams.
Contact David Paschall at dpaschall@timesfreepress.com.