NASHVILLE — Memphis environmental activist Marquita Bradshaw is doing better among likely voters than state Rep. Gloria Johnson of Knoxville when matched against incumbent Republican U.S. Sen. Marsha Blackburn in the 2024 contest, a new poll shows.
The conservative Beacon Center of Tennessee survey also reveals vaccine skeptic, environmental activist and now-third party presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. garnering 19% in a three-way contest with Democratic President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump. It comes at the expense of Trump, who dominates the race otherwise.
The survey of 1,181 registered voters was conducted Oct. 5-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.79 percentage points.
The survey shows Blackburn leading Johnson by 49% to 29%, a 20-point lead. A large group of voters, 23%, said they were undecided. That’s similar to an Emerson College Polling survey this month showing 50% favoring Blackburn and Johnson with 26%.
But Beacon also included a matchup between Blackburn and Bradshaw, who in 2020 unexpectedly derailed the candidacy of Nashville attorney James Mackler, who was backed by the Democratic Party establishment. Now-U.S. Sen. Bill Hagerty, R-Tennessee, handily won the general election.
It shows Bradshaw with 36% support. Blackburn’s support dipped by a point to 48%.
Tennessee Three
Bradshaw is well known in West Tennessee for her environmental and other social activities. Johnson, however, catapulted onto the national scene this year after Johnson and two other lawmakers conducted an impromptu floor demonstration over gun violence after the deadly Covenant School shooting in Nashville. They gained national attention as the “Tennessee Three.”
She has yet to file as a formal candidate with the Federal Election Commission.
Blackburn was elected to the Senate in 2018, defeating former Tennessee governor and Democrat Phil Bredesen.
(READ MORE: Blackburn defeats Bredesen; becomes first Tennessee woman elected to Senate)
The Beacon survey shows Trump leading GOP primary rival Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis 63% to 16% in Tennessee. And Trump, who easily carried the state in his two other presidential races, leads Biden 61% to 30% in a head-to-head match.
When Kennedy is added to the mix, it takes away from both Trump and Biden. But Trump is affected more. Trump’s support falls to 48% and Biden’s to 23%.
“While most people don’t view Tennessee as a swing state, Kennedy’s 19% is going to draw a lot of national attention,” Beacon spokesperson Mark Cunningham predicted in a news release. “It is clear from these numbers that Kennedy is going to pull most of his support from voters who would have otherwise supported Trump. This is certainly something the Trump campaign is going to keep an eye on and could become a big issue for the campaign in swing states with razor-thin margins.”
Sports fans
In what may be a historic first in Tennessee polling history, the Beacon Center survey included a question on which SEC football team has the most obnoxious fan base.
The University of Alabama won top prize. Thirty percent of voters, a plurality that transcended partisan divisions with Democrats, Republicans and independents, agreed ‘Bama was the worst.
But before University of Tennessee fans get too excited, 18% of respondents pointed a finger at the Vols’ fan base. That put them in a tie with the University of Florida. University of Georgia Bulldogs’ fans were at 6% and Ole Miss was 5%.
Health care
The Beacon Center asked participants who is primarily to blame for soaring health care costs. It’s a split decision along partisan lines.
Government regulations and policies ranked No. 1 with 24% of those surveyed, including a plurality of Republicans blaming that.
But insurance companies were a close second, with 23% pointing the finger at health insurers. Insurers were the top choice of Democrats, with 35% pointing the blame there.
Pharmaceutical costs came next at 13%, followed by patient overuse of services or not engaging in preventative care (7%). Malpractice suits were blamed by 5% of survey participants as were medical providers. Hospitals came in last at 2%.
Lee support
The survey, meanwhile, shows Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee slightly underwater in the poll. The second-term Republican governor’s job approval was 47% in Beacon’s survey. Another 25% disapproved of Lee’s performance. Twenty-one percent were neutral, neither approving nor disapproving, while 8% were unsure.
An Emerson College Polling survey released earlier this month showed Lee with a 35% approval rating among registered voters. Twenty-five percent said they disapprove of the job Lee is doing. Nearly half of those surveyed — 41% of residents — were neutral on Lee.
Lee, now in his fifth year as governor and term limited, shrugged off the Emerson survey last week.
“I don’t spend a lot of time looking at polls right now,” Lee said in an interview. “I just spend a lot of time trying to make this state a better place to live every day.”
Contact Andy Sher at asher@timesfreepress.com or 615-285-9480.