This year’s NFL draft will be offensive.
And we’re not talking about hurt feelings for prospects left waiting longer than expected.
No, this draft has the potential to set a record for the most offensive players selected in the first round. The record is 19, which has happened three times (most recently in 2009), but multiple draft experts have predicted more than 20 players whose primary role is on offense will go in the first round next Thursday night in Detroit. Some have forecast up to 25 of 32 first-round picks being offensive players.
The AP’s final mock draft had 22 going in the first round: 10 offensive linemen, six wide receivers, five quarterbacks and one tight end.
As usual, quarterbacks get the most attention. Caleb Williams, the 2022 Heisman Trophy winner, is ticketed for the Chicago Bears with the No. 1 pick.
Beyond him, there are plenty of questions. The Washington Commanders, who pick second, need a franchise player at that position and will likely choose between Jayden Daniels, the 2023 Heisman winner, and Drake Maye. However, J.J. McCarthy’s stock has soared since leading Michigan to the national championship, and he could end up in the top five, with some analysts even putting him ahead of Daniels and Maye.
Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. are in the second tier, but they could end up drafted in the latter part of the opening round.
Arizona Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort called quarterback “a hard position to evaluate.”
“With the history of the draft, there’s guys that hit and there’s guys that don’t,” Ossenfort added. “There’s a lot of things that go into what makes a good quarterback, not only on field but off the field, and I think that’s why that position is such a challenging evaluation for a lot of people in the game.”
The Las Vegas Raiders own the 13th pick, so they’d have to move up to secure one of the top four quarterback prospects. They enter the draft with veteran Gardner Minshew and second-year pro Aidan O’Connell on their roster; they could stay put to take the best player available and still end up with Nix or Penix.
“There’s really no consensus boards, at least since I’ve been in the league,” Raiders GM Tom Telesco said. “You’ve got 32 different teams that look at things 32 different ways. So our ranking may be different than other rankings, so I don’t know if there’s necessarily a top three and a next two or a next three. … It’s going to be a little bit different for everybody, depending on what you’re looking for.”
Receivers are a hot commodity with Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers and Rome Odunze not only considered among the top five potential picks but the best players in the entire draft pool.
“I think you could make a case the three highest-graded players in this draft are the three receivers,” said Daniel Jeremiah, a draft analyst for NFL Network.
Brian Thomas Jr., Adonai Mitchell and Troy Franklin round out the six receivers in the AP’s mock first round. Other potential first-round picks include Xavier Legette and Ladd McConkey. It’s such a deep class of receivers that teams could wait to snag an eventual starter on the second day, which has the second and third rounds, or the third day, which has the remaining four rounds.
Protecting the quarterback is critical to a team’s success, so there’s always an emphasis on offensive linemen, especially tackles.
Joe Alt is the consensus top prospect up front and is expected to be a top-10 pick. J.C. Latham, Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Taliese Fuaga and Troy Fautanu could go in the top 20. Amarius Mims, Graham Barton, Tyler Guyton and Jordan Morgan are also in the mix. Jackson Powers-Johnson is considered the top interior lineman in the draft.
“They’re all really talented,” Jeremiah said. “When you look at that top group of guys, really I would say you’re talking about Alt, Fashanu, Fuaga, Latham. I would think those are pretty unanimous, whatever order you have them, those are kind of the top four guys.”
As for teams looking at defense, there are several talented edge rushers and cornerbacks coming from the college ranks. The AP’s mock draft had four players at each of those positions going in the first round, along with two interior defensive linemen.
Edge rushers Dallas Turner, Laiatu Latu, Jared Verse and Chop Robinson, cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell, Terrion Arnold, Nate Wiggins and Kool-Aid McKinstry, and tackles Byron Murphy and Jer’Zhan Newton are among the best defensive players. Many teams prioritize edge rushers, and Turner is expected to be the first defensive player selected — possibly by the Atlanta Falcons at No. 8.
Only once in the past 57 years have the first seven picks all been offensive players. That happened in 2021.
“When you look at the history of drafts, you can look at a lot of times like, ‘OK, we really need a pressure player, so make sure you get that,'” Falcons GM Terry Fontenot said. “But we can look back at drafts where someone reached on a pressure player and left some really good football players on the board at other positions.
“It’s a strong draft. We’re going to be staring at some really good players at eight, or whether we’re up a little bit or whether we’re back a little bit, and that’s the excitement. We’re wide open.”
Every personnel boss says the same until they’re on the clock.