MILWAUKEE — Milwaukee Brewers manager Pat Murphy and his team adopted an underdog mentality even as they produced the best regular-season record in Major League Baseball this year.
Milwaukee’s matchup with the Los Angeles Dodgers — the reigning World Series champions — in the National League Championship Series enables the Brewers to embrace that approach even more. The best-of-seven NLCS starts Monday night at Milwaukee’s American Family Field.
NL West Division champion Los Angeles is seeking its third World Series title in six years, boasts the game’s biggest star in three-time league MVP Shohei Ohtani and is spending an MLB-record $509.5 million in payroll and luxury tax. NL Central champion Milwaukee has the smallest market in the major leagues, has never won the World Series and made its lone appearance in the Fall Classic in 1982.
One more indication of the contrast between these teams: The third-seeded Dodgers’ projected luxury tax bill of nearly $168 million exceeds top-seeded Milwaukee’s entire payroll of $124.8 million.
“The Dodgers are a powerhouse. What can you say?” said Murphy, whose regular-season record in two years as Milwaukee’s skipper is 189-135 with two division titles.
BetMGM has established the Dodgers as minus-220 favorites, meaning it gives them a 68.8% chance of winning the NLCS. Someone would have to bet $220 on the Dodgers to win $100 if they take the series.
“It doesn’t matter what people say,” Brewers second baseman Brice Turang explained. “It matters what we believe in here.”
There’s one problem with the Brewers’ underdog narrative: They won all six of their regular-season meetings with the Dodgers.
No wonder Los Angeles manager Dave Roberts takes umbrage with the notion that this is a David-Goliath matchup.
“They’re just gritty,” Roberts said. “They’re tough. And they take on Murph’s personality. They’ve got some guys that can slug. They’ve got some athleticism. They really defend well. They can pitch well. So it’s like they’re going to be in every game. They’ve got complete buy-in, and so they’re hungry. So those things are components that are scary.”
MLB history shows that head-to-head results in the regular season offer little help when it comes to predicting what will happen when those teams meet in a postseason series.
The 2003 New York Yankees went 7-0 against the Minnesota Twins in the regular season; the Yankees were 3-1 against the Twins in their American League Division Series. Six years later, the Yankees went 7-0 against the Twins again in the regular season and swept them in the ALDS.
However, the New York Mets swept the Chicago Cubs 4-0 in the 2015 NLCS despite going 0-7 against them during the regular season. And the 2007 Yankees went 6-0 in the regular season against the Cleveland Indians, who then turned the tables by winning their ALDS matchup 3-1.
The San Francisco Giants beat the Kansas City Royals in the 2014 World Series, which went all seven games; that came after the Giants went 0-3 against the Royals in the regular season. The Detroit Tigers swept the St. Louis Cardinals in the 2006 regular season; the Cardinals swept the Tigers in the World Series.
Los Angeles, though, definitely has the edge when it comes to rest. The Dodgers wrapped up their NLDS with the second-seeded Philadelphia Phillies in four games, closing it out with a 2-1 victory in 11 innings Thursday night at home.
The Brewers needed all five games to get past the rival Cubs in their NLDS, which wrapped up Saturday night in Milwaukee.
Roberts said the Dodgers plan to give the ball to left-hander Blake Snell in Game 1. Snell is 6-3 in a dozen career starts in the postseason, having pitched for the Tampa Bay Rays in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021 and the San Diego Padres in 2022 before this year.
Murphy didn’t announce starter Sunday but mentioned the possibility of using an “opener” — a short-innings starter for a bullpen game.
The scheduled starters for Game 2 on Tuesday are Brewers right-hander Freddy Peralta and Dodgers right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
The Brewers should also expect to see Ohtani on the mound at some point.
Ohtani is expected to win his fourth league MVP award — he won the NL honor last year in his first season with the Dodgers, having won the AL honor twice in his six seasons with the Los Angeles Angels — after batting .282 with 55 homers and 102 RBIs in the regular season this year. He went 1-for 18 with nine strikeouts in NLDS against Philadelphia, but he homered three times in the Dodgers’ six meetings with the Brewers.
Roberts said he plans to have Ohtani pitch in one game this series. He added that Ohtani’s hitting slump isn’t the reason the Dodgers opted against having him pitch Game 1.
“I expect a different output from Shohei on the offensive side this series,” Roberts said of Ohtani’s role at designated hitter. “But, yeah, pushing him back was no bearing on the offensive performance.”
A two-way star in his native Japan before coming to the majors and also during his time with the Angels, Ohtani didn’t pitch at all for the Dodgers in 2025 as he recovered from shoulder surgery. The Dodgers brought him along slowly in his return to the mound this season, building up his innings, and he went 1-1 with a 2.87 ERA in 14 starts during the regular season.
He went six innings as the winning pitcher in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Phillies on Oct. 4.
The Brewers will be getting their first look at Dodgers rookie pitcher Roki Sasaki, who was injured for both of the regular-season series with Milwaukee.
Sasaki has been spectacular in a bullpen role during the postseason. He has struck out five batters while allowing one hit and no walks in 5 1/3 shutout innings.
There is some postseason history between the clubs.
Milwaukee was a win from a World Series appearance in 2018 before losing 5-1 at home to the Dodgers in Game 7 of the NLCS. This marks Milwaukee’s first NLCS berth since.
Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich was the NL MVP during that 2018 season. The only other Milwaukee players remaining on the roster from that year are Peralta and fellow pitcher Brandon Woodruff — who isn’t expected to be available in the NLCS as he deals with a strained right lat muscle.