After early summer’s plentiful rainfall, including historic, deadly flooding in East Ridge, East Brainerd and Brainerd on Aug. 12, Chattanooga has dried into a moderate drought, and Cleveland might be a little drier.
Much of West Tennessee has been dealing with persistent, moderate-to-severe drought for months, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, but most of Central and East Tennessee is shown on climate reports to have had normal rainfall except for a dry patch centered over Southeast Tennessee.
The drought monitor shows all of Bradley County, 72% of Hamilton County, over 31% of McMinn County, about 18% of Meigs and 10% of Polk counties in moderate drought. Remaining portions of those counties are experiencing abnormally dry conditions. The big rain on Aug. 12 was a one-shot deal, according to assistant state climatologist Wil Tollefson at the state climate office at East Tennessee State University in Johnson City.
(READ MORE: Chattanooga’s Tuesday rainfall was the second-highest in city history)
“The rainfall that produced intense flash flooding in parts of the Chattanooga area was very localized, and was pretty much the only significant rainfall during the summer season and so far into fall,” Tollefson said in an email. “This can be seen by comparing the precipitation accumulation graph from the Chattanooga airport, which shows the big jump in early August from that extreme rainfall event, but after that, there has only been about 2.5 inches of rain at the station.”
Less than 30 miles away in Cleveland, Tennessee, and elsewhere in the Chattanooga region, there was no deluge in August.
“If you look at Cleveland in Bradley County, they did not get much of that rain and are well below normal since June 1,” Tollefson said. “Over the past three months, much of Southeast Tennessee has recorded under 75% of its normal rainfall.”
Data from the Tennessee Climate Office shows the Chattanooga area among the driest communities in the region in September, with 1.28 inches of rain for the month in Ooltewah and 1.42 inches of rain in Chattanooga.
So far, slightly more than one-tenth of an inch of rain has fallen in October, well behind the normal of 1.88 inches for the month, and the forecast for the coming weeks looks as if the drought will linger.
FALL COLORS
The long-lasting dry weather is not good for fall leaf color, which is beginning to peak in the higher elevations north and east of Chattanooga.
“The recent dry weather will likely dull the fall color in the region,” Tollefson said, “with some trees dropping leaves early or having more brown or spots rather than the normal brighter colors.”
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Still, Climate Office officials predict colors will be better than in previous years because of recent years of dry weather. Peak color in Chattanooga is still a couple of weeks away.
“Some rainfall is expected over the weekend, which could help conditions,” Tollefson said, “but current long-range forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration suggest that drought in Southeast Tennessee will persist over the next few months, with November and possibly December leaning toward drier-than-normal conditions.”
OCTOBER SO FAR
National Weather Service data for October shows rainfall as of Friday stands at 0.12 inches for the month. Chattanooga got traces of rain Oct. 5 and 6 and 0.11 inches of precipitation on Oct. 7. Normal rainfall for October in Chattanooga is 1.88 inches.
“So far, October has been dry across all of East Tennessee. While this is normally our driest month, pretty much all areas of East Tennessee have seen less than 25% of our normal rainfall month-to-date,” Tollefson said. “In fact, the only station in East Tennessee that has recorded more than 1 inch of rain so far this month has been the station on Signal Mountain in Hamilton County with 1.04 inches of rain.”
FORECAST
There’s a 70% chance of rain in Chattanooga for Saturday night and Sunday as a storm system moves east across the country, but it will be short-lived, according to the weather service. No rain is forecast from Monday to Thursday in Chattanooga, while highs will range from 68 to 74 through the week. The coolest night in the coming week will be Wednesday with a low of 42.
Contact Southeast Tennessee reporter Ben Benton at bbenton@timesfreepress.com or 423-757-6569.