George Springer seized a spot in Toronto Blue Jays history when he hit a three-run homer in the seventh inning that sent his team to a 4-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 7 of the AL Championship series.
Springer’s drive to left field Monday night didn’t have quite the same impact as Joe Carter’s homer that gave Toronto the World Series in 1993, or even Dave Winfield’s extra-inning double that helped the Blue Jays edge Atlanta for the 1992 title. But for a hit that occurred outside the World Series, Springer’s was awfully impactful.
A stat called championship win probability added (cWPA) — published by Baseball Reference — measures how much a particular play increased or decreased a team’s chance of winning that year’s World Series. That’s based on when it occurred in the game — and when that game occurred in the overall context of the season.
Springer’s homer increased Toronto’s chance of winning the World Series by 19.73%. It ranks as one of the 10 biggest non-World Series plays since 1903. Here’s the full list:
No. 10