NEW YORK — Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner made last year’s U.S. Open feel like two weeks of killing time until the inevitable.
They had separated themselves from everyone else in men’s tennis while meeting in back-to-back Grand Slam finals on the red clay of the French Open and the grass of Wimbledon. It seemed a foregone conclusion the young rivals would make it three in a row on the hard court in New York, which is exactly what happened.
Now, with the ATP Tour’s top-ranked Sinner sidelined by a knee injury, Alcaraz only returning now in a bid to repeat after missing four months with a wrist injury, and 24-time major champion Novak Djokovic perhaps finally showing his age, the U.S. Open once again feels, well, open.
Just don’t confuse that with meaning easier.
“It’s the same conversation,” said Frances Tiafoe, a 28-year-old American who has twice reached the semifinals at the U.S. Open (2022, ’24) and is seeded 11th in this year’s men’s singles bracket. “Still got to beat seven guys, however way you slice it.”
The women’s singles bracket has its own questions, with two-time reigning U.S. Open champion Aryna Sabalenka losing in the fourth round at Wimbledon and at both hard-court tournaments the 28-year-old from Belarus has played since, putting her hold on the WTA Tour’s No. 1 ranking in jeopardy.
The top spot could be in reach for multiple players, and so is the trophy at the final major tournament of the year, with No. 3 Jessica Pegula saying “there’s not one or two super dominant players where you feel like they have to lose in order for you to have a chance.”
“It seems to me like maybe more open in a way, just because, I don’t know, there’s more chances,” added Pegula, who lost to Sabalenka in the 2024 U.S. Open title match — the only Grand Slam final in the 32-year-old American’s career — and last year’s semifinals in New York.
Main-draw play begins Sunday, with Pegula in Arthur Ashe Stadium’s opening match and 39-year-old Djokovic leading off the night session before 46-year-old Venus Williams faces Sofia Kenin in women’s singles to cap it.
Alcaraz gets one more day to prepare. He has been sidelined since April with a right wrist injury, but the 23-year-old Spaniard announced on Aug. 20 he was ready to return at the tournament where he has won two of his seven major titles.
The most recent was at the Australian Open — he completed the career Grand Slam by adding the hard-court title in Melbourne to two each at the French Open (2024, ’25), Wimbledon (2023, ’24) and U.S. Open (2022, ’25) — but Alcaraz was shelved by the injury not long after finishing on top Down Under. German player Alexander Zverev, 29, won the French Open for his first major title, lost to Sinner in the Wimbledon final, then became the No. 1 seed for the U.S. Open when five-time major champ Sinner determined the knee injury that has kept the 25-year-old Italian out since that victory wasn’t fully healed.
“It’s been a couple of months now where it’s been pretty similar — a lot of uncertainty, some of the top players, they’re kind of injured or they’re not playing,” said sixth-seeded Alex de Minaur, a 27-year-old Australian who has never advanced beyond the quarterfinals at any major. “This is a little bit of the same, so we have seen lot of different players stepping up and a lot of different opportunities being up for grabs.”
Daniil Medvedev, the 2021 U.S. Open champion, pointed at players such as Zverev and Arthur Fils, who beat Tiafoe for the Cincinnati Open title before coming to New York, as players who know there’s an opportunity they don’t want to waste.
“For them, they’re probably thinking about it, not in a bad way, but they’re like, ‘We have a better chance without Jannik and maybe Carlos not 100% yet,'” the seventh-seeded Medvedev said.
Djokovic exited during his first match in Cincinnati and afterward mentioned an unspecified health problem that bothers him in the heat. That could make it difficult for him to make another lengthy run in New York, where he is a four-time champion (2011, ’15, ’18, ’23).
American men are still trying to end a Grand Slam title drought that dates to Andy Roddick winning the 2003 U.S. Open. Ben Shelton won a hard-court tournament in Montreal before Tiafoe’s runner-up finish in Cincinnati last weekend, and Taylor Fritz lost to Sinner in the 2024 final in New York.
“I would say this is a golden opportunity,” ESPN commentator Patrick McEnroe said. “Obviously if Alcaraz comes back and gets through a few matches, looks good, he’ll quickly become the favorite. I mean, he’s the favorite right now, but he’d quickly become a bigger favorite. There’s no doubt the fact he hasn’t played since the spring, with Sinner out, this is a monster opportunity.”
Elena Rybakina, who beat Sabalenka in this year’s Australian Open women’s singles final, Pegula and No. 4 Coco Gauff are all in pursuit of the top spot on the WTA Tour. Sabalenka could, depending on other results, lose it even if she becomes the first player to win three straight U.S. Open titles since Serena Williams from 2012-14.
“I’ll try to do my very best,” Sabalenka said, “and we’ll see what happens with the end of this tournament.”
She may be vulnerable, but Alcaraz perhaps even more so.
In 2025, it seemed only one man could beat him. This time, the list could be lengthy.
“I mean, he’s always a guy we’re going to look at, but a lot of guys believe they can not only get him but win the event,” Tiafoe said. “It’s going to be an exciting U.S. Open.”