The two Republicans who ought to worry the most about last weekend’s unexpected Democratic victory in a special Texas legislative election are John Cornyn and Ken Paxton.
The significance of Taylor Rehmet’s victory in the Fort Worth area race continued the run of Democratic successes in special elections, often the forerunner of mid-term election success.
It also showed that Republican voters who initially backed rival candidates won’t automatically coalesce behind the one who comes out on top.
“The GOP simply failed to meet a broader, less ideological electorate where it actually is in a runoff environment,” said John Huffman, who was eliminated in the first round of balloting.
The Democratic hopeful stressed the affordability issue in a district that President Donald Trump carried in 2024 by 17 points.
His Republican rival, conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss, failed to solidify the GOP vote that she divided with Huffman in the first round of voting.
At that time, Rehmet, 33, an aircraft mechanic and union leader, led the field with 47%; Wambsganss, 58, the communications officer for a wireless provider, had 37%; and Huffman, 42, the former mayor of Southlake, trailed with 16%.
In the runoff, Wambsganss, whose company Patriot Mobile calls itself “America’s only Christian conservative wireless provider,” sought to coalesce conservative support. Trump weighed in with an endorsement, though, when apprised of the results, said he was “not involved.”
She apparently made little effort to appeal to Huffman’s more moderate supporters. Huffman’s vote mostly seems to have stayed home, enabling the Democrat to win easily.
The lessons are obvious for the bitter year-long Senate battle between four-term Sen. Cornyn and his more conservative challenger, state Attorney General Paxton.
Whichever candidate ultimately wins the GOP nomination is likely to need the support of the other in November, especially true if state Rep. James Talarico defeats the more progressive U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary.
A recent Emerson College poll showed the 36-year-old Talarico leading by nine points, though a more recent Texas Public Opinion Research poll showed him one statistically insignificant point behind Crockett, 44.
Most analysts believe that Talarico, a Presbyterian seminarian who has reached out to conservative groups, would be a stronger general election candidate.
But bitterness between the supporters of the two main GOP rivals runs deep. It reflects a long-standing rift between the Texas GOP’s more establishment wing, represented by Cornyn, and the more pro-Trump populist wing, represented by Paxton.
Conservative opposition to Cornyn stems from the senator’s history of seeking compromises. Concerns date back to the 1990s when, as a Texas Supreme Court judge, he joined with Democrats and wrote the majority opinion in a landmark case requiring richer school districts to share property tax revenue with poorer ones.
More recently, conservatives booed him at the state Republican convention after he helped pass a bill enhancing background checks for young gun buyers and bolstering state laws allowing the confiscation of guns from those deemed dangerous.
Paxton’s problems stem primarily from personal scandals. He was impeached by the Texas House on bribery and corruption charges but acquitted by the Texas Senate. More recently, his wife of 38 years, state Sen. Angela Paxton, filed for divorce, charging adultery on “biblical grounds.”
He was at the forefront of the 2020 effort to overturn Joe Biden’s victory and has always been an outspoken Trump supporter. By contrast, Cornyn told reporters in 2023 that “Trump’s time has passed him by” before turning around and backing him in 2024.
It may help the runoff winner if Trump gives a strong endorsement.
But the warning from Fort Worth is that it could take more than a Trump endorsement to bring GOP unity at a time Democrats are mounting their strongest challenge in nearly a decade.