5-at-10: Fab 4 picks, SEC items of interest, Jake Arrieta, Rushmore of NFL founding fathers

Fab 4 (plus 2) picks

Last week was fun. Lots of winners. Lots of entertainment.

So what did we learn? Not much, but we have some favorites, and if you have followed the Fab 4 (plus 1) picks since they started in 2011, well, you know we are loyal to a fault.

Some of our early favorites and trends that have consistently delivered entertainment: All five Duke games have been under the total; Baylor has gone over the total in all four of its games; Navy is 4-0 overall and 4-0 against the spread;

What do we know now heading into the midway point of the season:

Ohio State is not as good as we expected, but that’s OK in the Big Ten.

Auburn is no where near as good as we expected, and that gets exploited in the SEC.

The craziness of the Pac 12 – where California and Utah play in Saturday’s biggest game (read that again) – makes for a wild second half.

Notre Dame-Navy on Saturday is a legit College Football Playoff elimination game. Notre Dame could wiggle back into the conversion with one loss. Navy is unbeaten and likely will be a favorite in every game after this one for the rest of the season. This would be a monster win on their ledger that could get an unbeaten Navy into the Big Six bowls.

Now for the things we think we know. To the picks.

Georgia minus-2.5 at Tennessee. Georgia still is in the mix for the college football playoff despite the beatdown the Bulldogs took. Yes, the last four games between these teams were one-possession games. But this line is too low because we are prone to overreaction in the world of entertainment hunting. Grayson Lambert was neutered against Alabama, but this Tennessee defense does not generate anywhere near the pressure Alabama does. Plus, if Tennessee can’t

Duke-Army under 49. Duke defensively is very sound, and the offense is deliberate. Army is a similar bunch. Duke has been consistent, and finding a consistent team in the world of entertainment is the best of things.

Michigan-Northwestern over 35. OK, one of our entertainment rules: When a number looks too good to be true, it normally is. Take last week, when Baylor-Texas Tech had a record-setting over/under of 90. Of course it went over. Michigan and Northwestern are the top two scoring defenses in the country, and the teams played to a tight-fisted 12-10 outcome last year. Still, 35 points? Thirty-five? It’s simply too low.

Florida-Missouri under 40. Florida’s defense is stout. Missouri’s offense is limited. Florida’s offense is young. Missouri’s defense is better than most know. This one feels 17-14.

Utah-California over 60. One team has the best quarterback in the country. The other is ranked in the top five and has the best kicking game in the country. This game feels like it will be played in the 30s. The easy math – even for us Auburn graduates – means a game played in the 30s goes over 60.

UConn plus-3 over Central Florida. Remember when UConn coach Bob Diaco said he was starting “The Civil Conflict” rivalry with Central Florida and Central Florida coach George O’Leary, when asked about it, said, “What?” Good times. We also remember when Central Florida was sneaky good. The Knights are 0-5 – straight up and against the spread, by the way – with home losses to FIU and Furman. Three points is a gift, especially when UConn has dominated The Civil Conflict.

Last week against the spread: 5-1 (83.3 percent)

This season against the spread: 18-10 (64.3 percent)

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SEC items of interest

1. Tennessee-Georgia in the which-coach-can’t-afford-to-lose-more bowl. Tennessee fans are wondering if Butch Jones can contend in the best conference in the country. Georgia fans are wondering if Mark Richt will ever win another big game. The questions are fair and frustrating. It amps the pressure on each team in a rivalry, and that magnifies how much a team is willing to sacrifice for its head coach. That may be the most interesting thing from this game: How much are the Vols willing to put on the line for Jones.

2. Is Alabama the best team in the country? The Alabama team that showed up Saturday in Athens with a bad attitude and a badder defensive front was awesome in their awesomeness. That performance sets the bar not only for the Tide the rest of the way, but for any College Football Playoff contender. Yes, it was that good; so good in fact that it generated the Monday Nick Saban news conference meltdown.

3. Will Auburn lose during its bye week? Maybe we should ask if the Tigers will lose again. Auburn – on the short list of the most disappointing teams in the country – dismissed receiver Duke Williams, who was their biggest playmaker. How far have the Tigers fallen? Next Thursday’s date at Kentucky looks like a must-win for Auburn to get to a bowl game.

4. South Carolina in a home game at LSU. The floods of the Carolinas forced the powers that be to move this game to Baton Rouge. LSU will donate the profits of this game – minus expenses – will be given back to South Carolina. That said, the special feeling that surrounds these Tigers – especially star running back Leonard Fournette -continues.

5. Florida takes its Cinderella story on the road. The Gators continue to surprise. Be it fourth-quarter magic against Tennessee or the smackdown they dropped on Ole Miss, the Gators are rolling. Now they make the long trip to Missouri with a stubborn defense and a young quarterback feeling his oats. Sorry Tennessee fans, but the SEC is more fun when the Gators are good.

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Playoff baseball

Wow that was fun.

We now have the Divisional round set in each league.

The wildcard format is cool. And the win-or-go-home set-up is high drama and fun.

But man, it’s tough on the Pirates, right? Pittsburgh had the second-best record in the NL each of the last two years and they have been bounced because they have faced two smoking aces.

Last year, Madison Bumgarner dropped an 8-0 shutout on Pittsburgh. Wednesday, Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta was historically good.

No pitcher before Arrieta had ever pitched a postseason shutout with 10-or-more Ks and no walks.

Arrieta, who’s 12-0 with 0.37 ERA since Aug. 1 (read those numbers again), was totally dominant He was so in control that when the Cubs scored in the first you felt good, and when they made it 3-0 in the third, it was time to move along.

We talked about the role of an ace Wednesday.

Arrieta is the definition of that, and his arrival gives the Cubs a shot against everyone. It’s possible that he could go in Game 2 on Saturday on two days rest, but it’s more likely that he’ll get the ball in Game 3 back in Chicago on Monday.

His presence puts more pressure on St. Louis in the first two games. If the Cards don’t win Game 1 Friday, then the decision is easy and Arrieta gets the ball in Game 3.

And the Cards are in trouble.

It’s good to have an ace.

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This and that

– Man, this is no good. Matt Barnes and Derek Fisher go toe-to-toe about Fisher hanging with Barnes’ ex-wife. That will add to the Knicks-Grizzlies match-up, no?

– The President’s Cup is off and running. And since it’s in South Korea, the time difference – it started last night around 11 – may force most of us to miss most of it. From this account, it sounds like we’re not missing much as the U.S. sprinted to a 4-1 lead after day 1.

– The back-and-forth with disgruntled Atlanta wide out Roddy White continues. White missed practice Wednesday for “personal” reasons and coach Dan Quinn said he was planning on speaking with White about his comments of wanting more catches.

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Today’s question

Lot to digest, and feel free to offer your baseball picks.

Four years ago today, Al Davis died.

Who’s on the Rushmore of professional football founding fathers? Davis makes a hard case.

Oh yeah, remember the mailbag.