Predicting the weather — especially in the long term — is a risky enterprise, especially when modern technology records and stores every utterance for future review. It’s a task that carries the possibility of widespread ridicule for meteorologists who miss the mark and the prospect of little reward, even if the prognostications prove valid. The possibility of public failure, however, usually does not stop the experts from issuing forecasts about hurricanes, a subject of major interest to residents of the eastern half of the United States.
This year is no different. Forecasts abound about what the upcoming hurricane season — which officially begins on June 1 and concludes on Nov. 30 — will bring in the way of heavy weather. There is in, fact, a unanimity of opinion from forecasters. The prognosticators expect the Atlantic hurricane season to be busier and therefore more dangerous and deadly than average. Whatever occurs in the coming months, the predictions are a valuable reminder that tropical storm season is approaching and that ignoring the threat posed by hurricanes is folly.
Four of the most widely viewed and studied of the annual hurricane forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service, by the Colorado State University forecast team, by AccuWeather.com and by forecasters associated with the Weather Channel that is carried on many cable TV systems in the United States. Though they are in general agreement, each has something unique to offer.
The U.S. Weather Service predicts an above normal hurricane season. What that means, according to David Hotz, who works at the service’s Morristown, Tenn., office, which serves Southeast Tennessee, is that there could be 14-17 tropical systems of importance this year. Those storms could produce 3 0r 4 major hurricanes. Mr. Hotz cautions, however, that the number of storms alone means little. How many make landfall is important, but that, like predicting the number of hurricanes in a given season, is difficult to pinpoint. Whatever the circumstance, Mr. Hotz says those in the Chattanooga area and in the southern Appalachian region should not ignore hurricanes and the threat they pose. That’s sensible counsel.
Tropical weather can still directly affect the region, Mr. Hotz explains. Remnants of hurricanes that reach Chattanooga have brought 50-60 mph winds and dumped 6-9 inches of rain in the region in a short period of time. That does not happen with great frequency, he adds, but it is always a possibility that should concern residents.
The Colorado State forecast, made by William Gray and Phil Klotzbach, predicts that 15 named storms will form in the Atlantic Basin this season with eight expected to become hurricanes and four developing into major hurricanes. That compares, the report indicates, to long term averages of 9.6 named storms, 5.9 hurricanes and 2.3 major hurricanes annually.
The forecast also indicates that there is a 69 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline. The long-term average probability of such an event is 52 percent. The group will update its forecast on June 2, but it clearly expects the upcoming hurricane season to be a busy one.
Ditto for Joe Bastardi, of AccuWeather.com. He reports that the rapidly approaching season could be a Top 10 year with a total of 16-18 storms. To put that in perspective, only eight years in the last 160 years of records have had 16 or more storms in a season. Moreover, he calls for a a season with few respites from hurricanes.
His forecast suggests that the season should start early with one or two threats by early July, and stay late with additional threats extending well into October. Moreover, he expects a more than usual number of storms to directly impact the United States. Though his version is slightly different in particulars from others, the overall view is that the season will be a dangerous one and that awareness of that possibility should begin now. That, too, is good advice.
Though the Weather Channel does not make predictions about hurricane season, Weather Service International, a company associated with the channel, does. This year, WSI is calling for 16 named storms, 9 hurricanes and 5 intense hurricanes of category 3 or greater. WSI also predicts that the coastal region from the Outer Banks of North Carolina northward to Maine is twice as likely as normal to experience a hurricane this year. Again the numbers are above short and long-term averages.
Time, as always, will tell about the accuracy of forecasts for the upcoming hurricane season. What is certain, however, is that the forecasts, right or wrong, heighten awareness of the storms and promote the need to be prepared in the event they occur — even in areas far from the coast. That’s a valuable service that should not go unnoted.