Fab 4 picks
The coaching adage is there is no more improvement for a football team than the steps made between weeks 1 and 2.
The gambling version of that is there is no more overreaction in terms of lines and numbers than the Vegas reactions after Week 1.
And that’s the trap. There are so many things to look for in trying to find entertainment on Saturdays.
There’s picking winners. There’s locating losers. And in Week 2, the divide between reality and real overreaction can be tough.
Is Texas truly terrible? Is Oklahoma an offensive onslaught every week? Is Alabama’s second-team a touchdown favorite over everyone this side of Clemson? Is THE Ohio State embracing THE Us-Against-the-World mentality? We have thought all week about riding with the Tide and rolling against the Jayhawks just on principle. Those thoughts have faded somewhat.
We have questions, people. Lots of them in fact.
There’s a thin line between Week 1 struggles being a bad week or featuring a truly bad team. That’s the divide here. So what’s the best plan of action.
Like a defensive end facing a Paul Johnson offense, remember your keys. Read and react. Forget looking and overreacting.
Find entertainment, and that often is best located in games that otherwise would not be that entertaining. And often times eliminating the temptation of trying to pick games because you know you are going to be watching that game – a USC-Georgia or a USC-Stanford for instance – is the prudent play.
Let’s ride.
UNLV minus-23 over UTEP. UNLV covered for us last week, and you know how partial we are to finding a hot hand and riding it. (Was it two years ago that Wisconsin was our weekly pet play?) Well, the Rebels are on the short list of candidates this year after covering the four-TD spread against USC in a game that was closer than the 43-21 final indicated considering USC only led19-14 heading into the fourth quarter. UNLV in a spread-rushing look totaled 303 yards on the ground. UTEP gave up 30 points – at home – to Northern Arizona and is right there with Kansas as one of the worst FBS teams with helmets.
Hawaii minus-16.5 over Rice. OK, the Rainbow Warriors can flat-out score. This is your midnight chaser – for a Rice team that will leave the Central time zone for a body-clock 10 p.m. kickoff. The Warriors, who have two wins and covers over Colorado State and last week at home over Navy, have a quarterback that is checking boxes and topping charts. Everyone meet Cole McDonald, a sophomore from California who is 56-of-78 for 846 yards and nine TDs. Against a normally somewhat stingy Navy defense McDonald was 30-of-41 for 428 and six scores last week. Ride the hot hand, and McDonald’s hands are the hottest around.
Nebraska minus-4 over Colorado. We had Nebraska in this space last week because of an off-the-charts energy level we believe Scott Frost will bring to Lincoln. We believe that still applies Saturday after last week’s rain out. The place will be bonkers friends. BONKers. Yes, Colorado has played. Yes, Colorado played well against an overmatched and dreadful Colorado State bunch. We’re riding with Frost.
Arkansas minus-13 at Colorado State. If you are noticing a trend of picking on the weaklings from Week 1, well, you caught me. Colorado State has allowed 44 points per in its two losses, and in truth, this one has the feel of a really ugly home loss that could really turn the Rams faithful against head coach Mike Bobo.
Missouri minus-18 over Wyoming. We have discussed that comparing numbers from the opening week is a dicey proposition. Well, comparing styles is a better approach. So, let’s take Wyoming which allowed 41 points and more than 300 passing yards to a throw-first, throw-last bunch from Washington State. Don’t you know Drew Lock and the Missouri receivers are licking their fingers for a shot at
THE over in THE Ohio State-Rutgers. As of this morning the total on this game was 62.5. We think THE waves of talented skill players at THE Ohio State may top that on their own. Seriously, that’s a downright scary offense.
Last week: 5-1 against the spread (83.3 percent)
This season: 5-1 against the spread (83.3 percent)
College football items of interest
As we shared last week, we are expanding the horizon of this space beyond the SEC to list five quick things across the landscape of college football that interests me this weekend.
Giddy up.
> Can the offensive eruptions in Norman, Tuscaloosa and Columbus continue. The eye-popping, scoreboard-breaking, statistician’s hand-cramping numbers were down right scary last week. As mentioned before, we believe THE Ohio State will do it again. We think Oklahoma and Alabama will also put strong numbers but could letdowns be a factor for any of those powerful three? Maybe. Also of note in these blowouts this weekend will be if Jalen Hurts plays this week. If he does, then it seems pretty clear that Nick Saban will have little regard for keeping him in four games or fewer so that he could count this year as a redshirt season under the new rules. And while we have been critical at times of Saban, Hurts’ future eligibility status at whatever school he transfer to (Hello, Lane Kiffin) is understandably far, Far, FAR down the list of things Saban needs to be concerned with. If Hurts does not play, welcome to the show Mac Jones.
> A huge upper hand in the SEC East race. Simply put, this likely will be, in the eyes of Vegas anyway, the most-losable test Georgia has among SEC East foes. Yes, Georgia does play Auburn, but a win Saturday at South Carolina really is a two-game swing considering tie-breakers and the rest of the league. (Sorry Florida fans. We’re high on Dan Mullen, but we’re not sure the Gators are there. They are on their way back for sure, but there’s still work to be done on the roster.)
> Statement game for Tom Arth and the Mocs. A 2-0 start would be awesome considering all the disappointments from last year and the roller coaster that was August. El Cid is at home and listed as a 1-point favorite at VegasInsider.com. There really is no bigger definition of a coin-flip game, and games like this can turn above average seasons into good ones and good seasons into potentially special seasons. Good luck Mocs.
> Blood baths in the Sunshine State. As TFP SEC ace David Paschall noted in the paper today, Florida-Kentucky has been as one-sided as CNN. We expect that to continue in The Swamp on Saturday night. Will the Gators cover the 14.5? If forced to pick we’d say yes, but it does not crack the ledger of games above. Now for games that do not have spreads, how nasty do you think the final scores of Miami-Savannah State and FSU-Samford will be considering how the ‘Canes and the ‘Noles pooped themselves in Week 1? Seriously, if we’d guess that the lines on those games would be somewhere in the Miami minus-56 and FSU minus-40 range. (And we’d ride with the Canes and lean toward the Bulldogs on those numbers believe it or not.)
> Is there an upset out there? Of the top 15 in the AP poll, the only reasonable chances for an upset are possibly USC at No. 10 Stanford and No. 15 Michigan State at Arizona State. After the letdown in Atlanta for the Pac-12 last week, the conference could use a lift for sure.
And here we go
We asked on Press Row on Wednesday afternoon about the ripple effects of the Nike ad with Colin Kaepernick and the trickle down to colleges and universities that are in partnerships with the all-powerful Swoosh.
Especially those colleges – like Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee – that are in the heart of Trump country.
Now comes news that a small Christian school in Missouri has ended its association with Nike this week. Here’s the story with the details of The College of the Ozarks dropping its affiliation because Nike is “promoting an attitude of division and disrespect toward America.”
Yep. Football season is here. It’s happening.
It will be interesting to see tonight how many of the outspoken Philadelphia Eagles – remember the hubbub about the invite/univite to the White House – protest before tonight’s season opener and how NBC covers it.
This and that
– Wow, that was a painful loss for the Braves, who blew a 7-1 lead late in a 9-8 loss to Boston on Wednesday.
– Remember the 5-at-10 Survivor Pool. If you want the Falcons or the Eagles, I need that pick by 5 p.m. today. If not, I need any other NFL pick (straight-up winners remember) by 5 p.m. Friday.
– The Ryder Cup is filled with talent as 15 of the top-16 ranked players worldwide are slated to play in the U.S. vs Europe event later this month in Paris.
Today’s questions
Well, lots out there.
First, answer whether you wish or skip it in general. If you are a UT, Bama or UGA fan, will you buy Nike gear of your favorite college football team this season after this week’s announcement? Why or why not?
The Mayflower left for America on this day in 1620. U-S-A! U-S-A!
The first true ‘supermarket’ was opened on this day in 1916 as Clarence Saunders opened a Piggly Wiggly in Memphis. Piggly Wiggly? How ol’ Clarence came up with that name is anyone’s guess.
Jane Curtin is 71 today. Ryan Shazier’s birthday is today. So is John Wall’s and Jeff Foxworthy’s.
Today is Barbie Doll Day. Barbie turns 59 today. She doesn’t look a day over 37.
Does Barbie make the all-time toy Rushmore? Discuss. (And remember the mailbag and the Survivor Pool.)