CAMBRIDGE, Mass. — Will the Middle East be as unstable 10 years from now as it is today? I asked that question this week to a class of students at Harvard’s Kennedy School. About half answered yes — that things will be as bad or worse, no matter what America does.
These Harvard graduate students sense what many Middle East experts are beginning to vocalize: The region is caught in a turbulent vortex of change that’s likely to continue for many years, perhaps for decades. The drivers are political, social, economic and demographic forces over which the U.S. and other outside powers have little control. For the next generation, instability may be the rule in the Middle East, rather than the exception.
Economic and demographic data show a region that is already stressed by slow growth and high youth unemployment. These problems are compounded by refugee flows from wars in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya — and worsened, further, by falling oil prices that hinder Saudi Arabia’s ability to provide a buffer.
The International Monetary Fund’s latest World Economic Outlook, released this month, presents a grim picture. Unemployment will top 13 percent in Egypt and Tunisia this year, and reach nearly 12 percent in Algeria. Economies aren’t growing fast enough to provide enough jobs for young people: Growth this year is expected to be 1.3 percent in Iraq, 2.5 percent in Lebanon, 2.6 percent in Algeria, 3.8 percent in Jordan and 4 percent in Egypt.
“Tepid” growth and falling oil exports mean larger trade and budget deficits, predicts the IMF. The region will suffer a cumulative current-account deficit of 1.9 percent of GDP this year; even the oil-exporting countries will run a deficit of 1 percent.