Russia confounds US with Syria military moves

In this image made from video provided by Hadi Al-Abdallah, which has been verified and is consistent with other AP reporting, smoke rises after airstrikes in Kafr Nabel of the Idlib province, western Syria, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015. Russian jets carried out a second day of airstrikes in Syria Thursday, but there were conflicting claims about whether they were targeting Islamic State and al-Qaeda militants or trying to shore up the defenses of President Bashar Assad. (Hadi Al-Abdallah via AP) In this image made from video provided by Hadi Al-Abdallah, which has been verified and is consistent with other AP reporting, smoke rises after airstrikes in Kafr Nabel of the Idlib province, western Syria, Thursday, Oct. 1, 2015. Russian jets carried out a second day of airstrikes in Syria Thursday, but there were conflicting claims about whether they were targeting Islamic State and al-Qaeda militants or trying to shore up the defenses of President Bashar Assad. (Hadi Al-Abdallah via AP)

By Associated Press October 2, 2015 5 min read

NEW YORK (AP) – More than 1,500 days ago, the Obama administration first declared that Syrian President Bashar Assad’s “days are numbered.”

He’s still there, though, and a convergence of Western trepidation and Russian resolve could strengthen his position further. But it also could set the stage for a long-sought political transition leading to the end of the Assad family’s 45-year rule.

In either case, Assad’s Russian and Iranian backers could arguably claim victory.

But there’s also a painful third possibility. Russia’s decision to intervene with airstrikes this week could just prolong and exacerbate an already brutal conflict that has spawned the largest refugee crisis since World War II and helped the rise of the radical Islamic State group that, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says, aims to establish a caliphate from “Portugal to Pakistan.”

The Obama administration has been criticized, first for a hesitating response to the civil war over the past four years and now for its hesitance to take a firm position on Russia’s moves.