Fab 4 picks (times 2)
We’re at Week 10. Tear. Sigh.
It’s going too fast. Too fast.
Tuesday’s announced rankings from the playoff committee add extra spice to this post-Halloween edition of the picks. That spice could be motivation for teams like, say, THE Ohio State or Clemson, looking to make a statement. That spice could be inspiration for underdogs looking to turn forgettable seasons in one glorious Saturday afternoon.
Or that spice could be pressure on a Notre Dame or a Washington State as the doubters loom and the stakes build.
It should be a very entertaining weekend of games. So let’s try to find some entertainment.
Army minus-7 over Air Force. Lot to like here. Air Force traveling to the East Coast for a noon kick, which is 10 a.m. body clock time for the Pilots. Air Force had an early bye – this will be the seventh straight Saturday in action – which double-downs against a very physical bunch like Army. But the half to get off the round number, but this one feels like a very entertaining play.
Clemson-Louisville over 61. The House of Cards Bobby Petrino has built is an unmitigated disaster. Two wins – over Indiana State and Western Kentucky in weeks 2 and 3 – and a defense that has allowed 66, 38 and 56 the last three weeks. Now U of many Ls is a 40-point underdog at a Clemson team that certainly has to take care of its BID-ness in style points because the ACC is not going to impress any committee this side of the Christmas card club of the Loyal Order of Antelope chapter in Jefferson County. The line seems a little big, but would any of us be surprised if this one is 49-bagel at the half or if Clemson covered the total on its own?
THE Ohio State minus-whatever over Nebraska. Let’s look at what’s happening here. THE Ohio State had an off week after the disaster at Purdue. THE Ohio State tumbled from playoff bound to ranked 10 Tuesday. There will be blood here, and Nebraska will not be able to block THE Buckeyes up front. Now remember what we discussed about the playoff committee rankings and THE motivation that will provide THE Ohio State. This line started at 21 and has dropped to 17, which is puzzling. Sometimes you just have to go with what you know, and here’s betting that this line will rise between now and kick time in Columbus.
Louisiana Tech plus-24 over Mississippi State. Knowing the calendar can work to your advantage friends. Last week was an emotional win over Texas A&M that MSU needed. The week before that was a very physical loss at LSU. Next week is Alabama. In between is a 6-2 Tech and Skip Holtz that has everything to gain and nothing to lose. Tech gave LSU a test in September and until Nick Fitzgerald broke that long TD run to seal the win over the Aggies, Mississippi State had not scored more than 24 points since Week 3.
Alabama minus-14 over LSU. Buy the hook here to prevent the back-door issues, but here’s a belief that the Tigers are excited for this game but the Tide are desperate to play this game. Can’t you hear the pregame scuttlebutt from Saban and the strength staff about, “Everyone says we haven’t played anyone” or “Men, when the NFL talent evaluators mention your name, this will be the tape they watch.”Yes, LSU has overachieved and they punched Georgia last month. But Alabama punches back. Hard. And remember for those who like in-game entertainment, not only has Alabama been perfect against the first half line, LSU will be without Devin White for the first two quarters for that terrible targeting call two weeks ago against Mississippi State.
South Carolina over Ole Miss. This game is the rare Week 10 pick ’em and that’s more of a testament to the underachieving of the Gamecocks than the impressiveness of 5-3 Ole Miss. South Carolina is simply more complete and – remember those 11 a.m. Central home kickoffs do nothing for the hosts – this feels like one that Will Muschamp will take from Matt Luke.
Texas A&M plus-4.5 at Auburn. Yes, Auburn had a bye week. Maybe Boobie Whitlow and some of the banged-up offensive linemen will be better health-wise. But simply put, the wrong team is favored here. Truly. Especially when you remember that this too is an 11 a.m. Central game, a time that has been notoriously frustrating for Auburn fans
Missouri-Florida under 58. Florida is going to try to run the ball. Missouri is good against the run. Missouri’s offense has been inexplicably bad. Florida’s offense does not have a quarterback. This feels like a game played in the 20s, and barring overtime, that means a strong under.
Last week: 3-2 against the spread (60 percent)
This season: 34-23-1 against the spread (59.6 percent)
Georgia outside linebacker D’Andre Walker (15) and his teammates will seek to return to their winning ways this week against Florida after falling to LSU and quarterback Joe Burrow 36-16 on Oct. 13.College football items of interest
LSU at night against the most explosive college offense I can recall. And while I certainly have bought none of the “Alabama hasn’t played anyone yet” mumbo-jumbo, this will easily be the best test for the Tide to date. And LSU’s secondary has two All-Americans, so this will be a telling challenge for the train that has been Tua. How good has Tua Tagovailoa been through eight games? Glad you asked. The all-time record of passing efficiency by a FBS quarterback is 198.9, set last season by Baker Mayfield. Tia’s at 238.8. For those looking for an NFL comparison, Tua’s stats in the formula the NFL uses that produce a 158.3 perfect score would give Tua a 152.4. Yes, he’s been that good.
Georgia-Kentucky first team to 21 wins? It’s not an accident that Vegas set the over/under at 44 for this one. Yes, Georgia put 36 on the board against a good Florida defense. But, and this feels a little strange to type, this UK defense – especially the pass defense – is better than Florida’s. The other thing that should give Alejandro and the rest of our UGA backers pause is those 170-plus rushing yards the defense allowed last week. Here comes Benny Snell right, Benny Snell left, and man, it’s hard to think Kentucky wants to get into a shootout. So possessions will be at a premium. As will points. (And yes, we have zero feel for this one or it would be in the picks.
Michigan and Notre Dame will either blink? The Wolverines host Penn State, which annihilated Michigan last year. Notre Dame goes to Northwestern. Each is ranked in the top six in the eyes of the playoff committee, and each is about a 10-point favorite. Hmmmmmmmmm, this is going to be a fun weekend.
Speaking of top-10 teams under the added pressure, how does Washington State handle its new found fame? Washington State is a 10-point favorite over a feisty and defensive-minded California. Feels about right. But you also have to wonder if the Fighting’ Leachs will be tight at home with their freshly minted No. 8 ranking from the playoff committee. The Bears pulled a tight-fisted 12-10 win over an underachieving Washington bunch. Side note: Man, how bad have the game-of-the-year participants in Week 1 between Auburn and Washington been? Each has lost three games. Neither is ranked, and despite starting the season in the top 10, those two are a combined 5-12 against the spread. Anyhoo, Cal certainly has Washington State’s attention after last week. And Washington State has our attention with an offense that is 100 percent the opposite of Georgia Tech. Yes, WSU won a game this year without a rushing yard. Tech won last week without a passing yard. Challenge.
What will happen at Maryland? Wow, what a week.
D.J. Durkin, who is entering his third season as football coach at the University of Maryland, is under scrutiny after allegations his staff verbally abused and humiliated players.Durkin out
Not so coincidentally, the auto-correct on the ol’ laptop changes Durkin to Darken.
Seems about right.
After re-instating head football coach D.J. Durkin earlier this week, the University of Maryland leadership fired him Wednesday night.
Yes, the backlash – including a scathing column in the Washington Post by Sally Jenkins with the headline “Don’t let your sons play for DJ Durkin” – caused the Maryland Board of Trustees to reverse course.
(Side note: How strong was Jenkins’ column? Here’s the first paragraph and then it really gets nasty. “Parents, don’t send your kids to Maryland to play football. Just don’t do it. It’s not a university, it’s a canker sore with a couple of dormitories strapped to its suppurating side. Don’t let your son so much as look at an application. At best he will get all the wrong lessons in manhood, take courses in deceit, and spinelessness. At worst he may wind up twitching on the ground, or even in a hospital issuing a death hiss. It’s not a safe place for athletes, or students.”)
The details around the death of Jordan McNair, the Maryland offensive lineman who died after suffering a heat stroke in the spring, are tragic.
Losing a teammate, a son, a friend, a family member is always painful. It raised questions about the culture and Durkin’s ability to lead a football program.
The board surprisingly found that while Durkin had some responsibility in this, it was unfairly all being blamed on him.
Then the storm brewed. Players left team meetings and sounded off on social media. Jenkins and the media were fired up. A student protest was call by the president of the student government association Wednesday night. It was getting ugly.
Maryland president Wallace Loh fired Durkin on Wednesday, a move that many thought would have been done rather quickly after the board completed its investigation.
Now the questions swirl. Did Maryland kowtow to pressure? Did Maryland make the right more, albeit a day late? Does Wallace Loh deserve credit for eventually coming to the right decision or blame for botching this whole deal?
In the end, it feels like the right decision was reached.
But the steps to get here have been rough to observe for anyone who cares for that university.
This and that
– Hey, reminder that today is the day that Taco Bell is giving out a free taco thanks to Mookie Betts stealing a base in Game 1 of the World Series. The giveaway is between 2-6 p.m. if you are interested. So there’s that.
– Saw this stat somewhere Wednesday and man, do it scream to the lack of continued success for Tampa Bay. In their history, the Bucs have drafted 25 quarterbacks. In their history, the Bucs have signed exactly 0 of those 25 quarterbacks to a second contract. Wowser. So there’s that.
– OK, Derrick Rose dropped 50 last night. Yes, 5-0. Yes, that Derrick Rose. Man, it’s hard not to wonder where his career would have taken him – and the Bulls for that matter – if he had not suffered those extreme injuries, you know. Rose left the court in tears as the Minnesota crowd chanted “MVP! MVP!” Cool story all around.
– Rose may have won the night, but Steph Curry continues to win the war. He had 37 last night – his sixth 30-point game of the season – and hit seven more 3s ion a 131-121 Warriors win over New Orleans. Curry is 55-of-104 from 3 this year. That’s 52.9 percent from distance gang. And that’s going to be nearly impossible to beat.
– As great as this college football weekend is going to be, Sunday boasts Rams at Saints and Brady vs. Rodgers in the NFL. That’ll do.
– Willie McCovey died. The Giants slugger and Hall of Famer was 80.
– Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers have extended the opt-out deadline to Friday. Hmmmmmmmm.
Today’s questions
OK, which college game are you most excited about this weekend, because we think the Bama-LSU game may get one-side?
Happy November everyone.
On this day in 1894, the vaccine for diphtheria was announced in Paris. Got to have his Dip Tet, honey. (Yes, Raising Arizona is wicked underrated.)
“Titanic” debuted in Tokyo on this day in 1997. In 1969 “Abbey Road” went to No. 1 for the Beatles. In 1950, Celtics forward Chuck Cooper became the first black player in NBA history. Bob Cousey also debuted in that game.
Hey, happy birthday to Apple bigwig Tim Cook. War Eagle, my man. He’s 57.
Sweetness – Walter Payton – died on this day in 1999.
It’s national calzone day. Calzone friend. It’s national men make dinner day and World Vegan Day, which do not make the best pair.
And of course it’s All Saints Day.
Rushmore of Saints. Go. (And remember the mailbag.)